TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pistons vs. Heat: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Heatof Pistons, Heat
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,214

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,214 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f09…9312backed Heat51c2,948$1,496 inWon+$1,451.889547.4%45 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pistons47c1,759$822 inLost-$822.345,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pistons49c713.43$352 inLost-$351.674,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Pistons50c500$250 inLost-$25028842.7%123 W · 165 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5202…63e8backed Heat48c400$192 inWon+$2081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2959…2b86backed Pistons52c369$192 inLost-$191.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ae1…601bbacked Heat48c356$171 inWon+$185.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cce…cd7cbacked Pistons52c351$183 inLost-$182.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x848a…95c2backed Pistons52c338$176 inLost-$175.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfad5…f3b9backed Heat48c333$160 inWon+$173.16250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70a4…a1debacked Pistons52c332$173 inLost-$172.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeae6…5176backed Pistons52c312$162 inLost-$162.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…f4eabacked Pistons52c311$162 inLost-$161.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a00…0af0backed Heat48c310$149 inWon+$161.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ec0…ea36backed Heat48c266$128 inWon+$138.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x508f…2c0bbacked Pistons52c265$138 inLost-$137.820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebb8…27b5backed Heat48c262$126 inWon+$136.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d92…6042backed Pistons52c245$127 inLost-$127.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5089…8459backed Heat48c231$111 inWon+$120.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb0…26dabacked Heat48c222$107 inWon+$115.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb719…7a78backed Pistons52c220$114 inLost-$114.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x502c…e162backed Heat48c216$104 inWon+$112.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5238…8833backed Pistons52c210$109 inLost-$109.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38aa…ce73backed Heat48c201$96 inWon+$104.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x222c…70f1backed Pistons52c172$89 inLost-$89.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4f7…d9cebacked Heat48c171$82 inWon+$88.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddea…eee9backed Heat48c157$75 inWon+$81.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafa3…1f19backed Heat34c75.55$26 inWon+$49.862142.9%9 W · 12 L+3.8wins+0.18per pick25cpaid+67.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeb24…fad9backed Pistons66c75.55$50 inLost-$49.861735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60e3…c767backed Pistons52c57.87$30 inLost-$3011553%61 W · 54 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbcf…20aebacked Heat50c50$25 inWon+$25.228943.3%125 W · 164 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd0…c365backed Heat72c37.53$27 inWon+$10.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41ac…76a9backed Pistons55c27.18$15 inLost-$14.852657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Pistons50c24.18$12 inLost-$12.211,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Pistons51c20$10 inLost-$10.227942.7%119 W · 160 L-14.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.