TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 229.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,447

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,447 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x32ed…f960backed Over50c2,688$1,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,337.632,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under51c2,497$1,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,273.324,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Over53c1,266$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.821,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under47c1,066$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.434,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under47c622$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.346,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under45c507.5$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.385,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7715…ada4backed Over54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2306344.4%28 W · 35 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under46c500$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2304,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under47c442.03$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.569,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Over54c422.43$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.3228842.7%123 W · 165 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over75c309.61$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.51,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Over51c308.69$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.7791846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a43…1405backed Over70c300$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902572%18 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+22.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over50c264.03$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.0284342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over53c213.7$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.443,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c39…20eebacked Under47c188.28$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.4935843.6%156 W · 202 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Over47c181.53$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.871,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under46c150$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86b0…a9e6backed Under50c119.1$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.557439.2%29 W · 45 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Over54c103.41$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5792058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under46c83.44$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.533,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over51c78.38$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.42,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under46c67.04$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.874,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41ac…76a9backed Over53c65.38$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.732657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over48c62.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.641,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over50c62.37$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.352,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Under47c53.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9153839.4%212 W · 326 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8bd…c55abacked Over54c46.01$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.164557.8%26 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffea…5f0abacked Under50c45.9$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.952751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7353…a4f0backed Under50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015041.3%62 W · 88 L-8.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x71b6…4e91backed Under50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2036350.1%182 W · 181 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e97…7680backed Over55c37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.654163.4%26 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under56c37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7229748.1%143 W · 154 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdea5…c77bbacked Under58c37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.461752.9%9 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick65cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Over53c33.96$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9654854.2%297 W · 251 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Under49c33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1746447.8%222 W · 242 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Under49c32.43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9745452%236 W · 218 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under52c31.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.083,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd32b…735cbacked Over54c26.93$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.39580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+41.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Under42c26.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.910623.6%25 W · 81 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Under49c23.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7652552%273 W · 252 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over63c22.72$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.413,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38c5…0f5cbacked Under50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108328.9%24 W · 59 L-14.6wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-37.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x1e6a…d38abacked Under50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103447.1%16 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Over60c16.89$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7515662.8%98 W · 58 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.