NBA · resolved market

Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 230.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a34f33278f3c6bcc351c294e29c9c43c9cd553b734f54333acfe7b913f3090c

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Mar 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $43,524

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,524 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under	50c	10,000$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	216	53.7%116 W · 100 L	+6.8wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Over	51c	7,938$4,048 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,889.68	326	53.1%173 W · 153 L	+19.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over	50c	6,016$3,026 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,990.4	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	49c	3,548$1,745 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,744.64	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	51c	1,404$721 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$682.81	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Under	50c	1,402$701 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$701.01	171	44.4%76 W · 95 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under	50c	1,275$638 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$637.5	475	42.3%201 W · 274 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	50c	1,182$591 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$591.2	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under	52c	1,132$589 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$588.74	331	46.2%153 W · 178 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	48c	1,007$484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$484.14	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	48c	1,004$487 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$486.69	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over	52c	1,000$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480	672	52.7%354 W · 318 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	49c	743.88$368 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$376.2	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda6e…1a11backed Over	51c	739.33$377 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$362.27	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	50c	653.32$327 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$326.66	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over	54c	580.2$315 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265.42	2,468	50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L	+38.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9140…17e0backed Under	51c	551.47$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.25	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	55cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under	50c	484.43$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.74	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Under	51c	484.4$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.5	288	42.7%123 W · 165 L	+6.6wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Under	51c	480$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.8	306	41.8%128 W · 178 L	-9.1wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under	52c	374$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.48	1,150	49.5%569 W · 581 L	-12.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadf6…4eaabacked Over	51c	340.86$174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$167.02	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Under	52c	307.69$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	521	46.6%243 W · 278 L	-14.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over	72c	300$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a43…1405backed Over	70c	300$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90	25	72%18 W · 7 L	+3.8wins	+0.15per pick	57cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Under	53c	245.28$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	260	48.1%125 W · 135 L	-15.1wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over	50c	240$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	395	52.2%206 W · 189 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4775…c57dbacked Under	52c	192.88$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-3.3wins	-0.16per pick	51cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Under	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	434	47.5%206 W · 228 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd355…e402backed Under	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	45	40%18 W · 27 L	-4.4wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Over	49c	187.8$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.32	1,425	47.7%680 W · 745 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ed3…983fbacked Under	49c	173.16$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.85	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x820e…9db7backed Under	49c	168.57$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.6	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-2.7wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over	48c	162.88$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.7	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe285…5754backed Over	49c	144.01$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.45	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-2.4wins	-0.19per pick	49cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf392…bb0dbacked Over	49c	143.48$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.17	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+2.1wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Under	44c	135.36$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.92	454	52%236 W · 218 L	+11.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d4c…41c4backed Over	49c	133.39$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.03	20	70%14 W · 6 L	+3.9wins	+0.19per pick	51cpaid	+40.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb11d…3706backed Over	49c	129.92$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.26	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Under	51c	121.45$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.94	765	52.9%405 W · 360 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Over	50c	120.6$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.3	625	41.9%262 W · 363 L	-32.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-11%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under	32c	108.59$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.25	656	30.2%198 W · 458 L	-86.7wins	-0.13per pick	43cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under	50c	108$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48cf…c7dfbacked Under	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	364	53%193 W · 171 L	-17.0wins	-0.05per pick	58cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Over	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	931	45.8%426 W · 505 L	-25.4wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3859…0ddbbacked Under	51c	97.23$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.55	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-2.7wins	-0.24per pick	51cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Over	52c	96.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.15	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Over	51c	95.35$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.33	399	43.1%172 W · 227 L	-17.1wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c39…20eebacked Under	50c	93.01$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.51	358	43.6%156 W · 202 L	-8.0wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under	41c	81.37$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.74	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaaa1…176bbacked Over	50c	80$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	70	48.6%34 W · 36 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0cf…6639backed Under	50c	77$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.5	64	40.6%26 W · 38 L	-5.1wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xddbd…e738backed Over	52c	77$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.96	74	43.2%32 W · 42 L	-4.5wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99fa…97a9backed Under	53c	75.47$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+1.8wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Over	73c	59.81$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.15	1,522	49.6%755 W · 767 L	+27.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Under	50c	59$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	464	47.8%222 W · 242 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over	49c	55.77$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.72	1,554	37.3%579 W · 975 L	-48.1wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over	46c	55.63$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.25	1,532	42.5%651 W · 881 L	-17.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x898f…e9f2backed Under	52c	51.92$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	73	54.8%40 W · 33 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ab…c3acbacked Under	52c	48.08$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	159	53.5%85 W · 74 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5828…9599backed Under	53c	46.87$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.84	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a38…d525backed Under	50c	43.72$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.86	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11a7…2c03backed Under	66c	40.88$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.18	144	56.3%81 W · 63 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under	49c	40.38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.79	648	44.8%290 W · 358 L	-32.3wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa00e…73fabacked Over	49c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.4	169	51.5%87 W · 82 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c2…cf66backed Over	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	58	41.4%24 W · 34 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x448a…3faabacked Under	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	42	45.2%19 W · 23 L	-3.0wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over	51c	39.52$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.36	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Under	49c	39$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.11	538	39.4%212 W · 326 L	-26.8wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Over	51c	38.21$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.69	1,197	48.9%585 W · 612 L	-14.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Under	52c	32.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.15	525	52%273 W · 252 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41ac…76a9backed Over	50c	29.9$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.05	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe44…1720backed Under	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	65	36.9%24 W · 41 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefb9…e74fbacked Over	50c	28.69$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.31	140	46.4%65 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Over	49c	24.57$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.44	168	67.3%113 W · 55 L	+13.8wins	+0.08per pick	59cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0172…4d2bbacked Under	50c	24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	49	53.1%26 W · 23 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e4a…eee7backed Under	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	327	52.9%173 W · 154 L	+11.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+11%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd81d…b365backed Under	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	111	49.5%55 W · 56 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e6a…d38abacked Over	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 230.5this page
1H Spread: Pistons (-0.5)Heat won
Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 14.5No won
Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
Cade Cunningham: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
Pelle Larsson: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 11.5No won
Pelle Larsson: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
Pistons vs. HeatHeat won
Pistons vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
Pistons vs. Heat: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 220.5Over won
Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 221.5Over won
Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 222.5Over won
Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 225.5Over won
Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 226.5Over won
Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 228.5Over won
Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 229.5Over won
Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 231.5Under won
Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Under won
Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Under won
Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Under won
Spread: Heat (-2.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-7.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won
Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Heat won
Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Heat won
Tyler Herro: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 230.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event