NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa5cf3236205c3bb663cb94d680bd909469baea2057e69bbd5e65e8e0c9dae11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,282 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf05c…66b9backed Under | 1c | 4,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 19c | 2,413$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.9 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 2,134$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.12 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 53c | 1,572$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.67 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…e42cbacked Over | 49c | 1,139$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 51c | 956.22$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.51 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 53c | 789$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.83 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 44c | 556.56$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.65 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6eb…5402backed Over | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 68c | 443.77$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.6 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 55c | 423.16$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.42 | 545 | 49.5%270 W · 275 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 55c | 402.89$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.09 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee62…bc6abacked Under | 64c | 391.27$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 44c | 372.47$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.08 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 44c | 356.45$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.84 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 80c | 322.53$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.51 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…a85bbacked Under | 47c | 316.98$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.98 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Under | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 302 | 24.8%75 W · 227 L | +15.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0875…167cbacked Under | 71c | 280.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Under | 42c | 264.11$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.56 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 43c | 262.79$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.21 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…99dcbacked Under | 69c | 258.91$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 237.9$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.03 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 44c | 196.35$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.67 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Under | 45c | 187$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 59c | 128.54$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 56c | 110.8$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 765 | 52.9%405 W · 360 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Over | 49c | 90.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 45c | 88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Under | 47c | 83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…2579backed Under | 70c | 78.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…cd5fbacked Over | 64c | 78.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e7…884cbacked Over | 56c | 72.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 163 | 38.7%63 W · 100 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…76a9backed Over | 55c | 62.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 47c | 62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 52c | 60.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 32c | 58.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Over | 55c | 56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Under | 47c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Over | 48c | 51.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 216 | 37.5%81 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Over | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 332 | 58.7%195 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 53c | 45.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x960c…4a4ebacked Over | 56c | 44.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 45c | 40.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Under | 35c | 38.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 118 | 26.3%31 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05f…91d5backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 46c | 30.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 26.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74fe…8243backed Under | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Under | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 385 | 40.3%155 W · 230 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e7…80d0backed Under | 49c | 20.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…ba10backed Under | 49c | 20.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…7593backed Under | 49c | 20.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 49c | 20.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Over | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 148 | 58.1%86 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Over | 64c | 15.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 142 | 64.8%92 W · 50 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-0.5)Heat won
- Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Pelle Larsson: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Pelle Larsson: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Pistons vs. HeatHeat won
- Pistons vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Pistons vs. Heat: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 220.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 221.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 222.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 225.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 226.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 229.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 230.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 231.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won
- Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Heat won
- Tyler Herro: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.