NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacfe75f703f70e83a0f73c6eea609e556dfa8157b57a540ddf701dc03b1caf42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,028 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 3,886$1,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,826.29 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 53c | 2,278$1,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.6 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 43c | 1,092$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.79 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 49c | 831.73$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.27 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Under | 51c | 803.56$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.74 | 382 | 51%195 W · 187 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af4…f9e0backed Under | 51c | 633.63$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.78 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Over | 50c | 570.8$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.4 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a7…87b6backed Under | 53c | 556.33$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.48 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 55c | 513.2$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.73 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 60c | 500.27$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.21 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 45c | 454$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.7 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8e…962bbacked Under | 49c | 409.89$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.89 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…2c03backed Under | 68c | 401.4$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7573…2c46backed Under | 53c | 232.77$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 62c | 230.62$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.01 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a48…83c5backed Under | 53c | 216.71$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffb…f9eabacked Under | 53c | 206.17$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 49c | 196.08$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.08 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9069…9c14backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 58c | 173.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa13c…7c8ebacked Under | 53c | 172.78$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Over | 56c | 166.07$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Under | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb9…6a60backed Under | 32c | 113.53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7f…3f13backed Under | 45c | 106.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 60c | 95.92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 44c | 82.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 44c | 78.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 54c | 70.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb568…14d4backed Under | 72c | 67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -20.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 61c | 62.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 47c | 57.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Under | 78c | 55.34$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed Under | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Over | 46c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 50c | 41.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Under | 53c | 36.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 50c | 36.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 45c | 33.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…de83backed Under | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1c…d7b7backed Under | 75c | 24.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaba…dbdebacked Over | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc55d…ad0cbacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-0.5)Heat won
- Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Pelle Larsson: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Pelle Larsson: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Pistons vs. HeatHeat won
- Pistons vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Pistons vs. Heat: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 220.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 221.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 222.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 225.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 226.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 228.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 229.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 230.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won
- Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Heat won
- Tyler Herro: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.