Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Draper (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce3ca24c98afb33c437e11a00de801adb019448d65c07de960d636cf8176dcee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Draperof Draper, Cerundolo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,108 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Cerundolo | 60c | 3,846$2,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,324.31 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4afb…ed2bbacked Draper | 40c | 2,848$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,711.3 | 166 | 36.7%61 W · 105 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Draper | 40c | 650$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 350 | 40.9%143 W · 207 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Draper | 37c | 473$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.99 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…21f7backed Cerundolo | 65c | 338.91$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.46 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…4610backed Cerundolo | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -6.1wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Draper | 40c | 306.07$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.69 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Draper | 38c | 290$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.13 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Cerundolo | 25c | 266.72$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Cerundolo | 62c | 241.94$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Draper | 35c | 200.41$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.27 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…42c1backed Cerundolo | 63c | 198.41$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 245 | 60%147 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125f…b7e8backed Draper | 62c | 162.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb24…fad9backed Draper | 65c | 158.72$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +162.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked Draper | 62c | 151.75$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Cerundolo | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…e69cbacked Cerundolo | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Draper | 35c | 74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Cerundolo | 28c | 70.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Draper | 37c | 58.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Cerundolo | 35c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Cerundolo | 36c | 35.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a66…2c23backed Cerundolo | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a9…6871backed Cerundolo | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Cerundolo | 61c | 31.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Draper | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Cerundolo | 61c | 29.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Draper | 46c | 28.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…11ffbacked Draper | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8770…8aabbacked Draper | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Draper (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)this page
- BNP Paribas Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Jack DraperJack Draper won
- Cerundolo vs. Draper: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Cerundolo vs. Draper: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Francisco Cerundolo vs. Jack Draper: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.