TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
3DMAXof FUT Esports, 3DMAX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$329,944

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $329,944 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked FUT Esports11c19,127$2,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,038.433,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked 3DMAX23c16,827$3,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,873.2130726.4%81 W · 226 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd72…8dd1backed 3DMAX34c8,800$2,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,806.191050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f76…5a0fbacked FUT Esports57c7,397$4,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,229.691442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x506b…3f70backed 3DMAX45c7,285$3,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,029.536858.8%40 W · 28 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed FUT Esports76c6,575$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.9538546.2%178 W · 207 L-16.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e38…de0fbacked FUT Esports66c3,941$2,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,583.0115760.5%95 W · 62 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed 3DMAX38c3,032$1,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,880.237537.3%28 W · 47 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xacc4…df93backed FUT Esports1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ab4…96a5backed FUT Esports78c2,734$2,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,132.788050%40 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed 3DMAX32c2,500$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,709.931,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked 3DMAX30c2,481$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,727.262,22347.5%1,056 W · 1,167 L-5.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed FUT Esports62c2,437$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,511.2122049.1%108 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked 3DMAX30c2,209$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,555.573,23651.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L+88.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed 3DMAX48c2,003$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.152,09241.6%871 W · 1,221 L-50.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf05c…66b9backed FUT Esports1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20300%0 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked 3DMAX30c2,000$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,395.6261228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed FUT Esports61c1,939$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.8646949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed FUT Esports61c1,912$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.8946349.9%231 W · 232 L-1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked FUT Esports63c1,819$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.7845357.2%259 W · 194 L-21.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-5.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked 3DMAX54c1,812$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.581,61945.5%737 W · 882 L+31.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a71…e454backed 3DMAX39c1,710$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,043.2624944.6%111 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3b8…b4d8backed FUT Esports65c1,459$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.535151%26 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked 3DMAX53c1,426$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.0218250%91 W · 91 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed 3DMAX31c1,403$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.14,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b22…ba7bbacked 3DMAX35c1,400$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91010345.6%47 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked 3DMAX45c1,331$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.082,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x338c…1b33backed FUT Esports66c1,280$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85016947.9%81 W · 88 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6ae…afe9backed 3DMAX39c1,277$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.9225640.2%103 W · 153 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked FUT Esports35c1,156$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.461,65932.7%542 W · 1,117 L-49.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked 3DMAX60c1,139$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.611,06049%519 W · 541 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked FUT Esports64c1,000$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.0853545%241 W · 294 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed 3DMAX34c1,000$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66055845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked 3DMAX36c950.82$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.5332752.3%171 W · 156 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked FUT Esports66c948$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.231,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked FUT Esports36c919.96$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.3122927.5%63 W · 166 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0caf…91adbacked FUT Esports80c912.04$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.6312465.3%81 W · 43 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed FUT Esports43c848.35$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.6914037.1%52 W · 88 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f40…e1f2backed 3DMAX38c823.68$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.684351.2%22 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked FUT Esports62c806.45$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50025361.3%155 W · 98 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed FUT Esports51c706.41$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.866,50142.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L-79.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed FUT Esports50c670.37$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.215,34131.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L-390.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x480e…71e9backed FUT Esports78c641.03$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed 3DMAX54c630.02$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.6489546.8%419 W · 476 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a97…66f5backed FUT Esports66c607.44$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003545.7%16 W · 19 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-19%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed FUT Esports80c600.07$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.0626549.1%130 W · 135 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x40a2…19c9backed FUT Esports48c579$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.929340.9%38 W · 55 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked FUT Esports62c543.55$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3371,62944.8%730 W · 899 L+4.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed 3DMAX39c529.99$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.2955736.3%202 W · 355 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02a9…642dbacked 3DMAX39c523.77$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.81258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked 3DMAX37c508.11$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.1128443.7%124 W · 160 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3502…e42cbacked FUT Esports61c495.04$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.972634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-36.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed 3DMAX38c484.19$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.211852.5%62 W · 56 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa0af…3b75backed FUT Esports62c415.99$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.9118342.1%77 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed FUT Esports50c415.7$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.6696743.5%421 W · 546 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked FUT Esports59c405.1$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.842,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed 3DMAX61c400$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.145455.1%250 W · 204 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86c4…fe40backed FUT Esports36c395.01$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.02837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed 3DMAX58c333.4$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.881,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb08…06acbacked FUT Esports62c322.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008351.8%43 W · 40 L-6.9wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-18.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed 3DMAX44c317.08$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.584,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked 3DMAX27c305.01$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.032,79837.6%1,051 W · 1,747 L-138.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed FUT Esports51c300.5$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.141,37845.2%623 W · 755 L+17.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed 3DMAX36c300$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19260848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed FUT Esports62c300$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18676546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed 3DMAX38c300$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18614454.2%78 W · 66 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a8d…ab7ebacked FUT Esports35c300$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8216846.4%78 W · 90 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbefe…2d45backed 3DMAX36c277.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.786246.8%29 W · 33 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc8d…5664backed FUT Esports37c273.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008242.7%35 W · 47 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed 3DMAX46c247.87$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.141,67651.1%857 W · 819 L+21.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f43…843abacked 3DMAX38c244.76$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.7510236.3%37 W · 65 L-10.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked FUT Esports79c227.31$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.6525070.8%177 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked 3DMAX45c227.2$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.9529547.8%141 W · 154 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-11.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x78a2…d0a5backed FUT Esports57c227.19$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.4513546.7%63 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed 3DMAX54c222$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.3721956.2%123 W · 96 L+14.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked 3DMAX35c220.47$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.5672451.2%371 W · 353 L+29.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed FUT Esports57c219$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.1946344.5%206 W · 257 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x423f…eedcbacked FUT Esports56c210.56$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.8440655.7%226 W · 180 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb950…4dd4backed 3DMAX39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12256738.8%220 W · 347 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed FUT Esports55c199.98$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9923433.3%78 W · 156 L-22.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked 3DMAX57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4453737.1%199 W · 338 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked FUT Esports50c169.65$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.2959647.3%282 W · 314 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked FUT Esports60c166.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10045162.3%281 W · 170 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed FUT Esports61c160$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3329244.5%130 W · 162 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x00cb…3992backed FUT Esports80c152.5$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1226536.9%24 W · 41 L-9.3wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30.9%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked FUT Esports62c151.83$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.961,71052.3%895 W · 815 L-73.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff73…35ccbacked FUT Esports62c146.58$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.222347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe203…1b53backed 3DMAX22c136.36$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.3635545.1%160 W · 195 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cfb…f786backed 3DMAX23c134.78$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.7813119.8%26 W · 105 L-10.7wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8fe3…949cbacked 3DMAX30c133.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.337534.7%26 W · 49 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf16…65a6backed FUT Esports80c125$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10023557.4%135 W · 100 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x92f5…13e5backed 3DMAX40c125$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7515142.4%64 W · 87 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37f8…b5e5backed 3DMAX31c121.29$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.3444743.8%196 W · 251 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9985…dad8backed 3DMAX29c120.42$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.212339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6fd…30f0backed FUT Esports80c120$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968951.7%46 W · 43 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed FUT Esports62c112.9$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7052649%258 W · 268 L-27.8wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked 3DMAX50c111.5$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.713,94936.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L-201.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked 3DMAX35c111$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.5847738.4%183 W · 294 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed FUT Esports69c104.57$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6252755.8%294 W · 233 L+23.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd68c…025abacked FUT Esports61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613946.2%18 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.