TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

BNP Paribas Open: Joao Fonseca vs Jannik Sinner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Jannik Sinnerof Joao Fonseca, Jannik Sinner
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$770,894

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $770,894 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Joao Fonseca14c74,722$10,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,155.132,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Joao Fonseca13c36,149$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,599.992,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c80…02c3backed Joao Fonseca9c35,722$3,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,215.013525.7%9 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdba8…9accbacked Joao Fonseca6c22,650$1,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,282.64117.1%7 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed Joao Fonseca10c10,003$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040748.9%199 W · 208 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c8…fd4cbacked Joao Fonseca6c8,317$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b71…8044backed Joao Fonseca10c8,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.52837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-23.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91ad…a5cabacked Joao Fonseca11c7,932$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.5611919.3%23 W · 96 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Joao Fonseca11c7,158$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.28721.8%19 W · 68 L-0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Joao Fonseca10c6,870$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.9130542.6%130 W · 175 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Joao Fonseca0c6,808$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.312550.8%2 W · 253 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked Joao Fonseca7c6,122$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.71,27630.4%388 W · 888 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a67…5d96backed Joao Fonseca1c6,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.52544%11 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+41.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Joao Fonseca13c5,880$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.238,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f35…95dabacked Joao Fonseca9c5,546$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.3145343.9%199 W · 254 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Joao Fonseca2c5,059$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.481,2068%96 W · 1,110 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+80.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7eb…eb13backed Joao Fonseca10c4,930$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.5520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-69.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75a7…2d61backed Joao Fonseca9c4,894$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.9571725.2%181 W · 536 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b0…e2e0backed Joao Fonseca12c4,411$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-33.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8df8…59ddbacked Joao Fonseca17c4,333$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.4424438.9%95 W · 149 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Joao Fonseca5c4,237$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.8528724.4%70 W · 217 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Joao Fonseca12c3,267$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.752920.7%6 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90a2…e4bfbacked Joao Fonseca8c3,113$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2511361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+51.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bcc…84c1backed Joao Fonseca10c3,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010341.7%43 W · 60 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc0c…218abacked Joao Fonseca10c2,977$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.754138.1%206 W · 335 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed99…2677backed Joao Fonseca17c2,971$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50014748.3%71 W · 76 L-9.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e79…54d2backed Joao Fonseca7c2,740$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.443122.6%7 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Joao Fonseca10c2,673$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.124634.1%84 W · 162 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Joao Fonseca18c2,589$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.1311,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5b3…49f8backed Joao Fonseca9c2,533$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22319835.4%70 W · 128 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Joao Fonseca10c2,500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.721,42128.6%407 W · 1,014 L+4.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Joao Fonseca9c2,088$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.9612322%27 W · 96 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ba2…53ddbacked Joao Fonseca10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Joao Fonseca10c1,985$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20098240.1%394 W · 588 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Joao Fonseca10c1,932$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.622723.8%54 W · 173 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Joao Fonseca16c1,823$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.5965647.6%312 W · 344 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked Joao Fonseca17c1,692$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29081933.1%271 W · 548 L-30.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa00d…0016backed Joao Fonseca10c1,678$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.8170%0 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x692e…ee58backed Joao Fonseca18c1,659$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Joao Fonseca10c1,652$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.1738739.3%152 W · 235 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3dd…cfc9backed Joao Fonseca7c1,632$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x154e…7a37backed Joao Fonseca10c1,501$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1541241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid-24.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a81…e071backed Joao Fonseca9c1,491$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.931060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5c1…7487backed Joao Fonseca7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007630.3%23 W · 53 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Joao Fonseca9c1,385$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.811,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8090…42c1backed Joao Fonseca10c1,251$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12524560%147 W · 98 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Joao Fonseca2c1,224$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5544423.9%106 W · 338 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58f4…764ebacked Joao Fonseca9c1,178$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.3228726.8%77 W · 210 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8007…4245backed Joao Fonseca11c1,175$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick25cpaid+105.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Joao Fonseca4c1,130$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8158021.9%127 W · 453 L+2.5wins0.00per pick21cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4213…6940backed Joao Fonseca10c1,121$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.25825%2 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-64.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9aec…69d9backed Joao Fonseca10c1,010$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3f…2215backed Joao Fonseca10c1,002$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked Joao Fonseca10c1,002$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10084963.1%536 W · 313 L+0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed Joao Fonseca10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10042743.8%187 W · 240 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd552…5ebebacked Joao Fonseca10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10036038.9%140 W · 220 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd020…6394backed Joao Fonseca1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked Joao Fonseca10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10025244.4%112 W · 140 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Joao Fonseca10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.819134.1%31 W · 60 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c3…6af2backed Joao Fonseca10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7412835.2%45 W · 83 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee28…8266backed Joao Fonseca7c999.64$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2610443.3%45 W · 59 L+11.5wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+12%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbcd2…6ab0backed Joao Fonseca11c994.38$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.482729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x226b…bb68backed Joao Fonseca7c876.2$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.41921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe44b…6e0abacked Joao Fonseca11c850$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9422039.1%86 W · 134 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3808…1cd1backed Joao Fonseca12c846.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002556%14 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+19.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Joao Fonseca15c841$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.1773745.2%333 W · 404 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Joao Fonseca15c830$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.337342.6%159 W · 214 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd02…60e0backed Joao Fonseca8c751.7$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.274845.8%22 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa1a4…434dbacked Joao Fonseca10c750$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Joao Fonseca12c749.97$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.092,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Joao Fonseca10c734$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.45949.2%29 W · 30 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Joao Fonseca15c720$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.091,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d39…a4fbbacked Joao Fonseca7c720$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x060c…7d36backed Joao Fonseca14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c9…9ee4backed Joao Fonseca9c712.99$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6735730.5%109 W · 248 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed Joao Fonseca8c686.53$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9566139.3%260 W · 401 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Joao Fonseca11c668.64$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3728322.3%63 W · 220 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbebf…9baebacked Joao Fonseca11c661.52$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8390854.5%495 W · 413 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b42…ae63backed Joao Fonseca16c611.56$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8550%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Joao Fonseca8c606.68$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5545147.2%213 W · 238 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f07…9d0fbacked Joao Fonseca9c600$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5170652.7%372 W · 334 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c2c…e0a7backed Joao Fonseca5c585.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.771163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+91.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a32…9f40backed Joao Fonseca11c579.13$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6522949.8%114 W · 115 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe705…8da6backed Joao Fonseca10c506.91$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.64520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-68.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6602…e138backed Joao Fonseca10c505$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Joao Fonseca5c501.28$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.043821.1%8 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-40.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Joao Fonseca10c500.28$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521,50435.1%528 W · 976 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bf7…66b1backed Joao Fonseca11c500.05$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78a1…5551backed Joao Fonseca13c500$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6390335.8%323 W · 580 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Joao Fonseca12c495.49$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4627460.2%165 W · 109 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d5a…6dd8backed Joao Fonseca10c491.3$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40a7…fd73backed Joao Fonseca13c475.92$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd65c…502fbacked Joao Fonseca7c473.37$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-73.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Joao Fonseca15c467$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4634744.4%154 W · 193 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Joao Fonseca15c466.87$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.291,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Joao Fonseca9c458.32$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.834,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb1…5e96backed Joao Fonseca11c455.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd5d…4183backed Joao Fonseca11c455.45$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014250.7%72 W · 70 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49cd…4b4bbacked Joao Fonseca11c440.78$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf22a…1697backed Joao Fonseca10c411.79$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.391020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-47.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.