Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs Sinner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0404ec1bfea5636d7a6d64c1e3ea39b0863c89446b503f43ba81a03811938c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Fonseca, Sinner
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,566 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a73…e1adbacked Fonseca | 28c | 463.61$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.71 | 158 | 26.6%42 W · 116 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Fonseca | 18c | 301.31$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 287 | 24.4%70 W · 217 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcb…36c9backed Sinner | 67c | 298.21$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.21 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…12ebbacked Fonseca | 18c | 227.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 184 | 30.4%56 W · 128 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Sinner | 71c | 219$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.51 | 246 | 34.1%84 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Fonseca | 44c | 218.5$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.15 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f56…92fabacked Sinner | 65c | 209.22$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe289…c31abacked Sinner | 67c | 149.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Fonseca | 43c | 123.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Fonseca | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Sinner | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 299 | 47.5%142 W · 157 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Fonseca | 30c | 84.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Fonseca | 26c | 71.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x621d…c520backed Sinner | 53c | 43.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6aaa…ddfdbacked Sinner | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 273 | 46.5%127 W · 146 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Sinner | 76c | 35.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | -8.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Sinner | 68c | 34.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Sinner | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…c000backed Sinner | 77c | 28.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd84d…cc32backed Sinner | 71c | 25.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Fonseca | 46c | 22.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Sinner | 70c | 22.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Sinner | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs Sinnerthis page
- BNP Paribas Open: Joao Fonseca vs Jannik SinnerJannik Sinner won
- Fonseca vs. Sinner: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Fonseca vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Fonseca vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Fonseca vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Joao Fonseca vs. Jannik Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5)Sinner won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.