Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b8ab0419e8cce7c64430e94de40de7db860829275a91edd5f407322e41ad5ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Sinner, Fonseca
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,318 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b7d…fbafbacked Fonseca | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sinner | 71c | 1,812$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.38 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Fonseca | 29c | 1,085$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.44 | 246 | 34.1%84 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc400…f991backed Sinner | 63c | 1,013$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.77 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sinner | 59c | 724.04$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.14 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5d…4183backed Fonseca | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Fonseca | 29c | 370.81$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.52 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Fonseca | 27c | 370.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 427 | 43.8%187 W · 240 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Sinner | 28c | 341.08$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.77 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f56…92fabacked Sinner | 65c | 320.32$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc975…2c68backed Sinner | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed02…85f7backed Sinner | 71c | 249.99$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 119 | 37.8%45 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…059abacked Sinner | 73c | 224$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Fonseca | 27c | 222.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 283 | 22.3%63 W · 220 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Fonseca | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Fonseca | 38c | 183.05$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Fonseca | 40c | 174.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Sinner | 73c | 168.06$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | -8.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x125f…b7e8backed Fonseca | 37c | 154.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Fonseca | 41c | 132.47$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Sinner | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 240 | 55%132 W · 108 L | -15.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…53ebbacked Sinner | 61c | 86.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c4…a7ffbacked Sinner | 72c | 78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…a8e5backed Fonseca | 38c | 74.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa52b…0d6dbacked Fonseca | 32c | 70.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Sinner | 68c | 70.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd8…39b1backed Fonseca | 30c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 182 | 48.9%89 W · 93 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…e86dbacked Fonseca | 40c | 65.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 526 | 61.2%322 W · 204 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Sinner | 61c | 64.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…48febacked Sinner | 72c | 64.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Fonseca | 28c | 64.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb1…e0cbbacked Sinner | 71c | 57.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Sinner | 70c | 57.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…43e2backed Fonseca | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 185 | 41.1%76 W · 109 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Fonseca | 30c | 48.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Fonseca | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 572 | 52.3%299 W · 273 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Sinner | 74c | 39.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5)this page
- BNP Paribas Open: Joao Fonseca vs Jannik SinnerJannik Sinner won
- Fonseca vs. Sinner: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Fonseca vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Fonseca vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Fonseca vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Joao Fonseca vs. Jannik Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs SinnerSinner won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.