TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on March 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$167,986

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,986 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 260 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Yes1c62,338$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.783,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes24c5,076$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239.384,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9582…0ddbbacked No73c2,376$1,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.7611930.3%36 W · 83 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes1c2,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6226834%91 W · 177 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes23c1,906$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.842,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0198…133bbacked Yes8c1,177$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5718452.2%96 W · 88 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes2c1,159$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.772347.3%17 W · 217 L+0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf25c…98aabacked Yes2c1,075$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4150%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes24c996.87$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.856627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes9c980.03$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3459923.5%141 W · 458 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8209…62b6backed Yes53c920.32$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.969625%24 W · 72 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No58c894.8$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.5758349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x554a…96e3backed No79c886.73$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.543852.6%20 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes19c871.38$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.876,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes33c859.67$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.628,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f87…0918backed Yes43c799.97$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.993732.4%12 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x883a…f76bbacked No44c681.79$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.84744.7%21 W · 26 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-22.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No57c649.03$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.134,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes38c627.09$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.7477428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb44d…ba3abacked No49c606.4$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.4742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes53c605.26$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.3823035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed No75c562.17$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.7132548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No52c531.99$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.6867158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21fc…da6abacked Yes7c524.37$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.751050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+48.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes15c517.04$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.581,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed No75c514.22$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.5986226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No64c472.37$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.761,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f6b…e0c0backed Yes52c412.23$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.99520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-47.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed No66c376.39$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.8230664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes52c363.43$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.9839541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes34c353.28$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.741845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed No48c351.02$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.5131341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes45c333$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.031,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4b5…1167backed Yes51c328.84$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.91425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-68.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes64c310.17$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.151,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9271…19eabacked Yes36c305.34$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1103063.3%19 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x49d7…1635backed Yes48c301.59$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.035453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes18c271.82$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3934319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes30c234$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.214338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ec5…5001backed No53c232.64$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.99633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc393…66f9backed Yes55c231.26$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.6312932.6%42 W · 87 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed Yes50c224.45$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No59c222.56$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.663,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes56c220.99$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.561,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes32c217.67$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.693034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6151…9848backed Yes46c213.6$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.391625%4 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc314…3501backed No80c203.75$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.572944.8%13 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d57…63d8backed Yes49c200$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No48c199.99$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1046950.7%35 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9450…685abacked Yes45c195.2$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.77521.3%16 W · 59 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cc8…2389backed Yes52c192.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017156.7%97 W · 74 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes9c188$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.926219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e9…eb6cbacked No54c186.01$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.011070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+26.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes7c185.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0720027.5%55 W · 145 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x745c…970fbacked Yes55c180.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick41cpaid-70.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No63c175.18$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.6241070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a00…929bbacked No76c173.68$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.462965.5%19 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d02…54b8backed No60c169.72$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.322528%7 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes11c164.89$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2915923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed No55c154.79$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.3612329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes19c151$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3126827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes37c150.27$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.236835.3%24 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3961…2c6cbacked Yes41c150$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No49c150$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.0432652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4969…6d77backed No42c149.97$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.981338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd110…fafdbacked Yes11c148.03$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.172642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7480…8f12backed No47c147.14$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.63366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes16c144.03$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.397,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No50c142.96$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.8231868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes50c140.81$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.415,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd8c…2600backed No48c139.85$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.32944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x579a…9908backed No47c138.38$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.7912154.5%66 W · 55 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfab6…7370backed Yes29c136$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes44c133.47$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.14332.6%14 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes52c133$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1611038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3487…11f5backed Yes32c127.01$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.269653.1%51 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1128…f7edbacked No52c126.65$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.843174.2%23 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5d0…2295backed No59c125.5$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.552817.9%5 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid+89.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ad4…fa20backed No45c115.1$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.162157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+36.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9a2…4133backed Yes17c114.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No60c114.38$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.156265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes41c114.24$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.386625.8%17 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-30.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdda2…ffa9backed No48c110$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.2785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick56cpaid+58.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba63…c192backed Yes55c107.56$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe238…2125backed Yes38c107$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f5c…1151backed Yes41c105.32$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-51.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes32c104.46$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.321,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6eb3…d405backed No48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1710247.1%48 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74e7…3de8backed Yes14c103.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.553534.3%12 W · 23 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-38.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes52c103.75$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.427,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No51c100.82$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.734751.1%24 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd5a…a71cbacked Yes47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3112735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d97…66f8backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.054057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5056118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe44…af27backed No51c99.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.217433.9%59 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac68…f1fcbacked No49c99.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9910728%30 W · 77 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes31c93.34$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdda…310cbacked Yes55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.846737.3%25 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No46c88.59$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.2730859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.