Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a42c1bfe23433c5fbbe638baf4c6d1958daf763c1b58a00ba1e2844bc540e0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $167,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,986 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 260 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 62,338$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.78 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 5,076$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.38 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked No | 73c | 2,376$1,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.76 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 23c | 1,906$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.84 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,177$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.57 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 2c | 1,159$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25c…98aabacked Yes | 2c | 1,075$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 24c | 996.87$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.8 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 9c | 980.03$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.34 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 53c | 920.32$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.96 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 58c | 894.8$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.57 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…96e3backed No | 79c | 886.73$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.54 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 871.38$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 859.67$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…0918backed Yes | 43c | 799.97$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.99 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 44c | 681.79$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.8 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 649.03$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.13 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 38c | 627.09$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.74 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb44d…ba3abacked No | 49c | 606.4$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 53c | 605.26$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.38 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 75c | 562.17$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.71 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 52c | 531.99$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.68 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21fc…da6abacked Yes | 7c | 524.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 15c | 517.04$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.58 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 75c | 514.22$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.59 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 472.37$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.76 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…e0c0backed Yes | 52c | 412.23$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 66c | 376.39$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.82 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 52c | 363.43$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.98 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 34c | 353.28$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.7 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 48c | 351.02$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.51 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 45c | 333$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.03 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b5…1167backed Yes | 51c | 328.84$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 64c | 310.17$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.15 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…19eabacked Yes | 36c | 305.34$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed Yes | 48c | 301.59$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.03 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 18c | 271.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 30c | 234$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec5…5001backed No | 53c | 232.64$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 55c | 231.26$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.63 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Yes | 50c | 224.45$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 222.56$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.66 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 56c | 220.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.56 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 32c | 217.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6151…9848backed Yes | 46c | 213.6$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.39 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…3501backed No | 80c | 203.75$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…63d8backed Yes | 49c | 200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…685abacked Yes | 45c | 195.2$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.7 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 52c | 192.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 9c | 188$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…eb6cbacked No | 54c | 186.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.01 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 7c | 185.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745c…970fbacked Yes | 55c | 180.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 63c | 175.18$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a00…929bbacked No | 76c | 173.68$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d02…54b8backed No | 60c | 169.72$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 11c | 164.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed No | 55c | 154.79$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.36 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 19c | 151$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 37c | 150.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3961…2c6cbacked Yes | 41c | 150$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 49c | 150$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.04 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4969…6d77backed No | 42c | 149.97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.98 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd110…fafdbacked Yes | 11c | 148.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7480…8f12backed No | 47c | 147.14$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 144.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 50c | 142.96$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 50c | 140.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.41 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…2600backed No | 48c | 139.85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 47c | 138.38$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.79 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…7370backed Yes | 29c | 136$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes | 44c | 133.47$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 52c | 133$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 32c | 127.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…f7edbacked No | 52c | 126.65$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.84 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d0…2295backed No | 59c | 125.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 45c | 115.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a2…4133backed Yes | 17c | 114.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 60c | 114.38$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 41c | 114.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…ffa9backed No | 48c | 110$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…c192backed Yes | 55c | 107.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe238…2125backed Yes | 38c | 107$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…1151backed Yes | 41c | 105.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 32c | 104.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e7…3de8backed Yes | 14c | 103.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 52c | 103.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 51c | 100.82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…a71cbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…66f8backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked No | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 93.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 46c | 88.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.