Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc005744d696df0e4ef630e6c3406eed37550f512f87ee1844f594ccf8ba4d6e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,352 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 10c | 1,425$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 830.84$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 671.66$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.27 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 14c | 546.08$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.41 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 10c | 534.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 3c | 513.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 6c | 506.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 28c | 506.25$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.37 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 17c | 505.17$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.65 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 473.05$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.29 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 25c | 436.08$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.74 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 424.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 6c | 396.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed No | 62c | 389.99$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.2 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 24c | 333$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.49 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 20c | 330.39$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 328.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 299.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 275$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 27c | 275$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 29c | 274.78$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.98 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a7…4972backed Yes | 18c | 272.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 6c | 252.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 25c | 250.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes | 45c | 221.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 219.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed Yes | 33c | 206.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.06 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 69c | 205.45$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.11 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 198$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 195.85$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.09 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 30c | 189.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 183.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 71c | 181.04$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2899…3f66backed Yes | 32c | 176.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 21c | 174.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…685abacked Yes | 22c | 161.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 19c | 160$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8203…cab2backed Yes | 10c | 146.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 31c | 139.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 73c | 133$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…aad9backed Yes | 31c | 130$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 129.82$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0b7ebacked Yes | 39c | 129.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e7…8fd4backed Yes | 31c | 120.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 26c | 120.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 120.41$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 11c | 111.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 68c | 111.1$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 29c | 110$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef3d…f943backed Yes | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 35c | 109$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…d614backed Yes | 11c | 107.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…a71cbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6151…9848backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 30c | 98.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 31c | 97.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 77c | 96.15$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 31c | 93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 20c | 92.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…8981backed No | 71c | 91.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 23c | 86.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1900…d545backed Yes | 29c | 86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 32c | 85.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973a…0ef4backed Yes | 21c | 82.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 37c | 82.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21fc…da6abacked Yes | 37c | 79.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 77.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 27c | 76.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda7…cf3bbacked Yes | 27c | 74.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…255dbacked Yes | 28c | 71.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes | 28c | 70.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 23c | 66.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e53…b65ebacked Yes | 31c | 64.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 30c | 63.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…4e25backed Yes | 27c | 61.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…621abacked No | 70c | 59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe3…2790backed No | 69c | 53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…1151backed No | 75c | 51.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd30…4dadbacked Yes | 30c | 50.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 25c | 50.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb819…f7c2backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e41…e758backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 76c | 49.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 31c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 29c | 48.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 30c | 44.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 68c | 43.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 33c | 43.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…c28cbacked Yes | 27c | 43.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0943…1019backed No | 73c | 43.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 34c | 42.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.