TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,352

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,352 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes10c1,425$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.048,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes26c830.84$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.246,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes37c671.66$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.274,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes14c546.08$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4159923.5%141 W · 458 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes10c534.24$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0232818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes3c513.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.42,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes6c506.79$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.71,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes28c506.25$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.3756627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes17c505.17$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.652,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No74c473.05$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.294,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes25c436.08$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.7477428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes6c424.17$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes6c396.96$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.982347.3%17 W · 217 L+0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ea9…7927backed No62c389.99$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.28151.9%42 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes24c333$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.491,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes20c330.39$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.661,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes17c328.18$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1234918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4512330.1%37 W · 86 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes12c299.15$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.97,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes5c275$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.756219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes27c275$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520027.5%55 W · 145 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes29c274.78$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.981,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87a7…4972backed Yes18c272.42$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes6c252.72$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1441046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes25c250.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.421,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes45c221.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8111515.7%18 W · 97 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes26c219.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.81,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x49d7…1635backed Yes33c206.98$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.065453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No69c205.45$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.1158349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked Yes14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2816432.9%54 W · 110 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+47.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No75c198$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.333,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No73c195.85$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.091,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes30c189.72$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6126827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes24c183.04$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed No71c181.04$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.1932548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2899…3f66backed Yes32c176.42$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes21c174.78$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5393034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9450…685abacked Yes22c161.92$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.787521.3%16 W · 59 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes19c160$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4215923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8203…cab2backed Yes10c146.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.281656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3487…11f5backed Yes31c139.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.39653.1%51 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No73c133$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6242857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x030a…aad9backed Yes31c130$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No67c129.82$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.381,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7515…0b7ebacked Yes39c129.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+26.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4e7…8fd4backed Yes31c120.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid+44.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes26c120.77$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.523035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c120.41$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.349,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes11c111.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.341,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No68c111.1$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.732652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes29c110$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.443021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef3d…f943backed Yes31c110$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-57.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes35c109$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4916840.5%68 W · 100 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6941…d614backed Yes11c107.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.541216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd5a…a71cbacked Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6151…9848backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261625%4 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2631341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes23c99.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2313424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes25c99.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510728%30 W · 77 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes18c99.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1843525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes30c98.84$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes31c97.58$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010235.3%36 W · 66 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No77c96.15$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.941070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc393…66f9backed Yes31c93$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.712932.6%42 W · 87 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes20c92.74$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5513010.8%14 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51a1…8981backed No71c91.67$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.154862.5%30 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes23c86.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1822028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1900…d545backed Yes29c86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.941020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-50.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes32c85.87$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4867633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x973a…0ef4backed Yes21c82.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1440%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes37c82.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21fc…da6abacked Yes37c79.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.721050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+48.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes34c77.01$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.182,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes27c76.69$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6929653.4%158 W · 138 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfda7…cf3bbacked Yes27c74.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b4a…255dbacked Yes28c71.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes28c70.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204332.6%14 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes23c66.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.52,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e53…b65ebacked Yes31c64.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes30c63.19$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6658732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x62e1…4e25backed Yes27c61.76$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.613557.1%20 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x479e…621abacked No70c59$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes25c55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.832044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfe3…2790backed No69c53$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5c…1151backed No75c51.69$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.12728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-51.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd30…4dadbacked Yes30c50.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.14852.1%25 W · 23 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes25c50.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.741,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb819…f7c2backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e41…e758backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.231216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-67.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked No76c49.88$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9331567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes31c49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0945127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes29c48.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.966625.8%17 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-30.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebda…75a9backed Yes30c44.27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0821722.6%49 W · 168 L+0.7wins0.00per pick22cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88e2…d474backed No68c43.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.216639.2%65 W · 101 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes33c43.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5532444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaf1…c28cbacked Yes27c43.72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123565.7%23 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0943…1019backed No73c43.57$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.571070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+20.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes23c43.48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes34c42.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.542438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.