Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ca45f5568878265b81bcb0b18da684e68b117cbac6528d1f7ff239d8ab19e93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,642 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 234 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed Yes | 9c | 3,390$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.06 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 13c | 1,930$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.76 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 42c | 1,792$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.35 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 1,206$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 71c | 1,149$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.43 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc858…2c16backed No | 44c | 1,100$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 30c | 1,035$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.46 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 30c | 918.53$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426b…0583backed Yes | 1c | 909.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 19c | 881.45$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.5 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 17c | 861.4$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 47c | 825.29$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.73 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 4c | 746.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes | 12c | 729.36$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.79 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 43c | 676.7$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.72 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 21c | 605.57$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.78 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 73c | 579.74$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.72 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc229…dbeabacked Yes | 36c | 552.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 21c | 527.51$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.22 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 5c | 518.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 21c | 480.23$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.74 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…96e3backed No | 48c | 472.49$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.69 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 465.75$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.46 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed No | 78c | 456.79$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.06 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 37c | 420.69$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.42 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 19c | 420.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 414.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 51c | 407.78$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.68 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 29c | 388.59$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.85 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…6b3dbacked Yes | 76c | 380.5$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 374.1$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.55 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 361.97$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 18c | 349.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.41 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 50c | 349.97$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.13 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed No | 53c | 328.78$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.07 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 71c | 312.9$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.84 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 37c | 305.19$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.95 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…baa4backed Yes | 69c | 300.17$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.15 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…0918backed No | 43c | 299.96$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.99 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x943b…fe84backed Yes | 69c | 282.55$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 281.29$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.27 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c15…5542backed No | 54c | 278.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03bf…475cbacked Yes | 8c | 249.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +547.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…022dbacked Yes | 54c | 246.25$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.82 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed Yes | 62c | 237.41$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.52 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 56c | 227.41$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.34 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes | 42c | 223.49$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 42c | 214.71$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.65 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 16c | 209.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 14c | 205.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.5 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5445…f68abacked Yes | 37c | 205$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.49 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe028…7923backed Yes | 44c | 204.29$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec2a…e917backed No | 39c | 197.77$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745c…970fbacked Yes | 57c | 193$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 51c | 191.46$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.4 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0372…4914backed Yes | 64c | 184.57$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 64c | 183.73$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.88 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 57c | 181$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.37 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…f7edbacked No | 49c | 177.02$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.34 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e3…284bbacked Yes | 57c | 175.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ee…163ebacked Yes | 56c | 175.37$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…bf48backed No | 25c | 172.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.58 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed No | 69c | 168.91$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd88…01bcbacked Yes | 45c | 168.06$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe678…9dcdbacked Yes | 12c | 166.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…d2acbacked Yes | 62c | 164.29$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61e0…4b62backed Yes | 61c | 162.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 46c | 160$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.36 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4969…6d77backed No | 43c | 159.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.81 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7926…a4febacked Yes | 75c | 158.74$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.63 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc298…250dbacked Yes | 64c | 155.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x794c…5be9backed Yes | 74c | 151.7$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8091…3178backed Yes | 51c | 150.44$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee7…9c56backed Yes | 67c | 150.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 45c | 142.75$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.06 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 141.87$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 57c | 141.09$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacb1…d05dbacked Yes | 15c | 133.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 48c | 129.89$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.54 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 127.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…aa48backed Yes | 64c | 127.44$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.04 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa1…e0fabacked Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 16c | 124$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…3f62backed Yes | 25c | 121$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…c259backed No | 22c | 120$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.26 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 25c | 118.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…4e25backed No | 74c | 117.71$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd97d…bcffbacked Yes | 51c | 115.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 16c | 113.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.75 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked No | 25c | 113.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.23 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…6faebacked Yes | 14c | 112.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e79…29b3backed Yes | 77c | 112$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 109.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc106…2a44backed No | 22c | 109.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 26cpaid | +195.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed Yes | 20c | 106.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 20c | 106.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7a…957ebacked No | 21c | 102.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.73 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b34…2fdcbacked Yes | 16c | 101.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed Yes | 39c | 101.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…92ccbacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.