Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x989278accddf79ff348a2ae0ee7c8df48f3a685e390ba4b9cfe0179b04616f31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,759 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked No | 1c | 6,140$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 1,205$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 13c | 1,024$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.58 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 22c | 779.03$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.56 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x426b…0583backed No | 2c | 769.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 11c | 627.16$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 52c | 621.09$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.69 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked No | 3c | 488.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…0918backed Yes | 23c | 482.98$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.56 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 23c | 473.97$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.64 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 20c | 409.81$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.81 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 23c | 400.01$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.05 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 15c | 399.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.37 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 5c | 383.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 25c | 334.89$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.79 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 24c | 331.81$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.77 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 43c | 308.98$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.73 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 6c | 302.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…baa4backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.38 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 14c | 299.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.99 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 15c | 298.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.53 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 68c | 282.39$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 31c | 251.09$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.95 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 246.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 241.8$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 229.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.06 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 229.44$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.91 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e8…38b0backed No | 31c | 222.05$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 15c | 186.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes | 27c | 185.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.64 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfc…26aebacked No | 10c | 185.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 26c | 181$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.6 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 11c | 181$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 27c | 178.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.34 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes | 33c | 176.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.09 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 28c | 176.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.99 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 162.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 25c | 154.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.12 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0b7ebacked Yes | 29c | 153.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 25c | 153.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.43 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 68c | 151.52$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.85 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 151.36$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.7 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 150.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.27 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 34c | 147.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 34c | 145.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 26c | 145.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.84 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 37c | 136.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.03 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaba…23f5backed No | 75c | 133.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 119.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 10c | 110.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.8 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 109.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4611…5e90backed Yes | 16c | 102$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d2…ef4dbacked Yes | 26c | 100.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…779dbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6151…9848backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…8a87backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…aa48backed Yes | 24c | 96.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 33c | 91.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2018…640abacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 36c | 89.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 62c | 86.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 19c | 78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 77.57$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 30c | 77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3557…ae87backed Yes | 33c | 75.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 20c | 73.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.39 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 21c | 72.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.13 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 26c | 71.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.76 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 73c | 71.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d6…e222backed No | 76c | 68.43$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 23c | 65.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.62 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1869…9449backed Yes | 16c | 65.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 70c | 64.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 16c | 63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 57c | 62.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…2d9dbacked Yes | 57c | 61.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…255dbacked Yes | 33c | 60.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a5…5737backed Yes | 22c | 60.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed No | 69c | 58.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d0…2295backed Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48a…94f0backed Yes | 30c | 53.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…7562backed Yes | 26c | 50.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 39c | 49.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 26c | 46.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 45.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 74c | 44.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 26c | 42.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…9b20backed Yes | 39c | 42.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ea…296dbacked Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…fdfcbacked No | 39c | 38.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.