TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Spurs (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spursof Spurs, Trail Blazers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$854,215
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$873,379

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $854,215 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 422 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Spurs49c440,362$213,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226,485.41,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe934…640bbacked Trail Blazers51c204,914$104,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104,398.813860.5%23 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc2e7…be51backed Trail Blazers52c158,973$82,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82,665.7910049%49 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Trail Blazers53c39,113$20,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,727.2948352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Trail Blazers49c29,168$14,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,292.31,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Trail Blazers13c27,580$3,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,567.841,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed Spurs51c26,419$13,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,038.2919754.3%107 W · 90 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Spurs51c24,265$12,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,889.8532846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Trail Blazers50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Trail Blazers50c19,910$9,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,955.0949244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked Trail Blazers49c17,294$8,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,438.9420352.7%107 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a9a…b270backed Spurs50c16,278$8,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,139.163100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+79%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Spurs50c15,555$7,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,777.513442.5%57 W · 77 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Spurs48c14,615$6,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,644.519,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1333…173bbacked Trail Blazers49c11,376$5,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,574.243941%16 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x92b5…fec6backed Trail Blazers51c9,516$4,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,85310747.7%51 W · 56 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Trail Blazers51c9,516$4,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8534847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Trail Blazers50c9,428$4,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,7141,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Trail Blazers49c8,876$4,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,349.3474748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f79…1608backed Trail Blazers51c8,735$4,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,455.057447.3%35 W · 39 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0ea…e79cbacked Trail Blazers50c8,293$4,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,146.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc31e…82cdbacked Spurs51c7,613$3,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,730.15875%6 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+115.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb015…eea7backed Trail Blazers50c7,371$3,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,685.35580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+63.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Spurs48c6,000$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1202,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Spurs49c5,968$2,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,059.8320843.8%91 W · 117 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3a…eb9abacked Trail Blazers51c5,900$3,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,008.8611457.9%66 W · 48 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers13c5,706$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.38,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Spurs65c5,569$3,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,949.271,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6bd…3096backed Spurs50c5,048$2,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,523.787852.6%41 W · 37 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Spurs48c4,200$2,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,184.1938143%164 W · 217 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6323…9feebacked Trail Blazers50c4,152$2,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,075.9914441%59 W · 85 L-12.8wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-15.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Spurs52c3,991$2,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,915.8272241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Trail Blazers50c3,880$1,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,94079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Spurs49c3,799$1,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,923.981,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc119…0162backed Trail Blazers53c3,667$1,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,943.61921.1%4 W · 15 L-5.6wins-0.29per pick50cpaid-61.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Spurs50c3,273$1,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,636.3970246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1b…7768backed Trail Blazers50c3,168$1,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,584.2527645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Trail Blazers52c3,088$1,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,605.561,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Spurs68c3,005$2,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.5511639.7%46 W · 70 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Trail Blazers45c2,997$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,348.6123747.7%113 W · 124 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Spurs50c2,910$1,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,45589050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Spurs60c2,909$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.21,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Trail Blazers44c2,882$1,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,265.1129849.3%147 W · 151 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc50f…3ad3backed Spurs50c2,796$1,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,398.1612850%64 W · 64 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Trail Blazers56c2,608$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,460.441954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Spurs49c2,500$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,27556843.8%249 W · 319 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09f4…dac0backed Trail Blazers50c2,414$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20716946.7%79 W · 90 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Trail Blazers51c2,409$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,221.771,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf972…853fbacked Spurs53c2,021$1,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.04250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aec…b4cebacked Spurs48c2,018$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.538838.6%34 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Spurs49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89f0…1e62backed Spurs50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0005547.3%26 W · 29 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Spurs50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00052951.2%271 W · 258 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Trail Blazers51c1,955$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.8117247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57b1…4b99backed Spurs51c1,903$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.5410847.2%51 W · 57 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked Trail Blazers10c1,770$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Trail Blazers50c1,600$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80064651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Trail Blazers37c1,559$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.1871654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c83…cf0abacked Spurs50c1,498$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7495427.8%15 W · 39 L-9.5wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-44.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Spurs50c1,471$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.494,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Trail Blazers48c1,446$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.8744551.2%228 W · 217 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe53c…ee05backed Trail Blazers51c1,360$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.994032.5%13 W · 27 L-6.9wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x60fe…f286backed Spurs50c1,302$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.0310745.8%49 W · 58 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6b2…f6e2backed Spurs65c1,286$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.982748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Trail Blazers53c1,284$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.2615850.6%80 W · 78 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Trail Blazers50c1,237$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.472,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Spurs50c1,164$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5824348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Spurs47c1,152$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.8236143.5%157 W · 204 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Trail Blazers52c1,105$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.6966248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Spurs51c1,056$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.4520647.6%98 W · 108 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cd7…33d9backed Trail Blazers50c1,053$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.16911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.5wins-0.39per pick50cpaid-76.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Spurs51c1,047$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.946258.2%269 W · 193 L-0.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Trail Blazers51c1,022$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.3748751.7%252 W · 235 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked Spurs49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.1935849.7%178 W · 180 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7c…51b6backed Spurs49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5103040%12 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e1…85a2backed Spurs49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51032347.1%152 W · 171 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Spurs50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5008637.2%32 W · 54 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x128f…db9dbacked Spurs50c989.4$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.720651.5%106 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Spurs50c982.61$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.3131643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbef6…f2f9backed Spurs51c970.6$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.592755.6%15 W · 12 L+5.0wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+25.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb2fe…7558backed Trail Blazers50c970$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48514946.3%69 W · 80 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb50d…81debacked Spurs50c970$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4852259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf68…ed10backed Trail Blazers13c954.96$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.75964.4%38 W · 21 L+7.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+13.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Trail Blazers53c953.46$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.3412548%60 W · 65 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0d2…ad14backed Spurs50c892.4$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.214450.7%73 W · 71 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72a6…cfefbacked Spurs50c872.35$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.185839.7%23 W · 35 L-5.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Spurs47c860.77$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.213,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Trail Blazers41c845.85$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.542352.5%222 W · 201 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0204…0e31backed Spurs51c811.26$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.7828949.1%142 W · 147 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6076…f8fdbacked Spurs48c808.47$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.9620346.3%94 W · 109 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Spurs50c776$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38818748.1%90 W · 97 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea8d…89b1backed Trail Blazers15c725.93$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.713153.4%70 W · 61 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fa8…0b19backed Trail Blazers15c721.62$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.2421354%115 W · 98 L+8.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Trail Blazers15c712.64$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.959250.2%297 W · 295 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Trail Blazers15c712.64$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.923445.7%107 W · 127 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Trail Blazers15c698.96$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8458953.7%316 W · 273 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e86…fce6backed Trail Blazers42c689.43$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.564652.2%24 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Trail Blazers48c663.55$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.1393543.6%408 W · 527 L-32.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…86dbbacked Trail Blazers15c644.72$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7111648.3%56 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked Trail Blazers39c636.21$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.254450%22 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.