TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-9.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pacersof Heat, Pacers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,405,926
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,680,615

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,405,926 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 276 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5919…95acbacked Heat47c340,878$159,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159,417.6511543.5%50 W · 65 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b9c…7e44backed Pacers53c212,766$112,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100,000.025658.9%33 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Heat47c156,127$72,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72,900.432,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Pacers54c150,000$81,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,00066248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Pacers53c145,906$77,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,575.8229245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Heat46c120,573$55,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,382.787451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Heat46c105,623$49,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,086.3643148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Pacers52c96,532$50,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,460.4536549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Heat48c61,545$29,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,614.991,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Heat48c57,951$27,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,889.481,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pacers53c53,775$28,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,274.434,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Pacers52c50,000$26,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,999.9516841.1%69 W · 99 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d3d…3165backed Pacers54c45,425$24,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,895.53129%9 W · 22 L-6.7wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-45.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xb12d…f73cbacked Pacers52c40,286$20,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,328.219655.2%53 W · 43 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pacers54c40,257$21,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,518.434,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Pacers54c25,000$13,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,50035450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec7e…5fddbacked Pacers53c22,000$11,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,339.963554.3%19 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+19.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Heat47c16,794$7,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,886.633,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Heat45c16,277$7,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,324.6548352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Heat46c15,000$6,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,9001,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Pacers54c15,000$8,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,9009159.3%54 W · 37 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+20.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Heat47c10,250$4,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,817.3223147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Pacers51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,90066250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4108…9e22backed Heat48c9,721$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,7005036%18 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Pacers54c9,000$4,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,14048845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb6f…2653backed Heat49c8,000$3,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,919.9916249.4%80 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat40c6,505$2,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,629.358,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Heat48c6,483$3,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,082.4457950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Heat25c5,927$1,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,482.873,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Pacers75c5,706$4,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,423.3183039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Pacers54c5,407$2,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,484.292,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e70…f06fbacked Pacers54c4,722$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,172.226746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Pacers55c4,540$2,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,04395651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb71…bca1backed Pacers50c4,161$2,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,080.5580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+60.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Heat49c4,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,96079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked Pacers55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,80020355.2%112 W · 91 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Heat48c3,949$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,889.873,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Pacers60c3,768$2,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,518.932,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf3b…8d68backed Heat50c3,637$1,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,818.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd56f…3bf2backed Heat50c3,334$1,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,667633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers55c3,312$1,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500.396,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Heat48c3,228$1,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,535.782,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Pacers53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,41026755.8%149 W · 118 L+12.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Pacers52c2,756$1,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,322.941,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Pacers54c2,504$1,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.91,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Pacers54c2,500$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,15095641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed Heat47c2,030$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.18653.5%46 W · 40 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf234…7f34backed Pacers50c1,982$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+33.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Pacers51c1,951$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.9884443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b61…b7eabacked Pacers55c1,622$892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.822060%12 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-5.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Heat48c1,563$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75065349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Heat44c1,548$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.1721443.9%94 W · 120 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Heat25c1,546$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.1636949.6%183 W · 186 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe156…134bbacked Pacers54c1,482$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.0811235.7%40 W · 72 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Pacers54c1,476$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.883351.5%17 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Heat41c1,418$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.471,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8319…1a76backed Pacers50c1,352$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick50cpaid+68.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xabbe…1e19backed Pacers55c1,124$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.64540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Heat44c1,103$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.461,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68d8…4cc6backed Pacers54c1,069$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.3314455.6%80 W · 64 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2579…9d48backed Pacers53c1,054$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.6919359.6%115 W · 78 L+14.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Pacers50c1,029$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.576249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9541…3b71backed Pacers53c1,000$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.53644.4%16 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Heat47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4701,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pacers54c993$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.785,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Pacers54c925.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.9338946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Heat48c853$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.4458347%274 W · 309 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36f2…dab4backed Heat49c816.33$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4007951.9%41 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Pacers51c800$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39267252.7%354 W · 318 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Pacers52c790.36$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.5884150.3%423 W · 418 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Pacers54c749.91$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.034,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Heat24c740.13$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.8720049%98 W · 102 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2571…a49abacked Pacers51c728.76$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.73944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Heat48c687.87$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.435,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Heat51c687$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.3731354.3%170 W · 143 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Pacers74c674.92$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.161,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca4…51cebacked Pacers77c641.55$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.972564%16 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Pacers55c632.29$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.454,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Heat46c626.23$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.051,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Heat46c614.18$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.142,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Pacers54c555.56$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.5670246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Pacers54c541$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.8656843.8%249 W · 319 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Heat46c537.5$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.2540146.9%188 W · 213 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x570a…d810backed Heat50c524$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Heat28c520.9$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.1244551.2%228 W · 217 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Heat29c513.75$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.1556447.9%270 W · 294 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Heat29c506.22$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.1459250.2%297 W · 295 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1030…dd7abacked Heat47c501.72$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.8113349.6%66 W · 67 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Pacers54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2302,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f82…9b01backed Pacers50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25016635.5%59 W · 107 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb70d…5925backed Pacers54c462.63$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.6917643.2%76 W · 100 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Heat48c449.52$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.0349249.8%245 W · 247 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Heat49c445$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.071,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51bb…a919backed Heat46c443.47$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2047350.7%37 W · 36 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x41ce…6509backed Pacers50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20028046.8%131 W · 149 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33e9…39b0backed Pacers67c399.95$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.987152.1%37 W · 34 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed Heat48c389$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.7210256.9%58 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x69c2…40cfbacked Pacers52c385.1$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.148132.6%157 W · 324 L-2.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Heat47c371$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.841,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Heat29c360.7$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9941449.3%204 W · 210 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.