NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-7.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9532b5e37414ece4189d56b0d47f6b52be09041e57192ed5f1abc6cd814ac5d2

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Pacersof Heat, Pacers
Resolved: Mar 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $131,078
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $136,005

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,078 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x033d…fd1ebacked Heat	38c	57,811$21,931 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21,930.89	102	52%53 W · 49 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Heat	56c	50,000$28,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27,999.98	404	46.8%189 W · 215 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Pacers	44c	41,312$18,177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23,134.72	662	48.5%321 W · 341 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pacers	60c	30,768$18,547 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,221.45	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Pacers	64c	19,493$12,458 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,035.49	1,522	49.6%755 W · 767 L	+27.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Pacers	61c	8,388$5,091 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,296.45	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Pacers	50c	7,786$3,899 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,887.15	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7fa…f6dfbacked Heat	37c	4,400$1,645 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,645.39	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	-2.3wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b12…43c8backed Pacers	47c	2,948$1,385 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,562.23	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Heat	53c	2,448$1,297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,297.23	747	48.5%362 W · 385 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf16…9c6fbacked Heat	38c	2,388$912 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$912.3	56	60.7%34 W · 22 L	+5.6wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Pacers	50c	2,014$1,008 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,006.42	369	49.6%183 W · 186 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Pacers	74c	2,000$1,480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$520	1,271	38.3%487 W · 784 L	-13.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Heat	45c	1,205$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540.17	2,400	43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L	-82.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Pacers	44c	980.34$431 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$548.99	1,141	48%548 W · 593 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Pacers	50c	933.73$467 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$466.91	200	49%98 W · 102 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Pacers	62c	605.67$374 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$231.31	1,036	47.6%493 W · 543 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c61…db4bbacked Heat	56c	535.71$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	65cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Heat	53c	500$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265	1,901	48.7%925 W · 976 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Pacers	60c	498.98$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$198.98	954	52.3%499 W · 455 L	-17.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Pacers	49c	413.12$202 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210.74	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x45e8…5169backed Pacers	64c	390.61$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140.62	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Pacers	52c	349$183 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165.92	1,048	51.7%542 W · 506 L	+7.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefd1…c520backed Heat	56c	337.48$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.99	86	54.7%47 W · 39 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77d1…eb7fbacked Heat	15c	330.76$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.3	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Pacers	55c	325.39$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$148.05	326	54.6%178 W · 148 L	+22.0wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5625…6c2abacked Pacers	44c	227.27$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.27	128	45.3%58 W · 70 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Heat	52c	210.42$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.42	1,915	49.3%944 W · 971 L	+19.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa10e…4ea1backed Pacers	48c	208.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.33	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe878…e281backed Heat	53c	199.04$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.05	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-22%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Pacers	50c	196.88$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.91	390	55.6%217 W · 173 L	+8.8wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Heat	55c	182.14$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.55	574	44.1%253 W · 321 L	-20.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a58…f9d8backed Pacers	65c	175.38$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.38	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51bb…f542backed Heat	53c	150.94$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe270…a8f9backed Heat	53c	150.94$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.18per pick	56cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf885…1095backed Heat	53c	150.94$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	52cpaid	-55%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pacers	48c	150.66$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.82	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d87…4e0dbacked Pacers	58c	144$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.48	342	47.7%163 W · 179 L	-8.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd146…c13fbacked Heat	44c	143.65$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.6	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Heat	71c	141.18$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	432	69.2%299 W · 133 L	+10.7wins	+0.02per pick	67cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed Pacers	64c	140.61$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.61	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-11%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pacers	44c	134.14$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.12	1,758	48.7%856 W · 902 L	+28.3wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Pacers	49c	124.1$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.82	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Pacers	44c	111.18$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.26	100	42%42 W · 58 L	-5.4wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Pacers	44c	90.91$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.91	271	38.7%105 W · 166 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf2e…0d9ebacked Heat	56c	89.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	30	40%12 W · 18 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked Heat	69c	84.2$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.74	104	57.7%60 W · 44 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Heat	42c	79.33$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.67	260	43.8%114 W · 146 L	-15.1wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Pacers	27c	78$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.94	804	40.3%324 W · 480 L	+27.4wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Pacers	62c	76.04$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.68	492	47.2%232 W · 260 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc58a…b8f8backed Pacers	49c	74.38$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.03	215	50.2%108 W · 107 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7be…908dbacked Pacers	56c	70.78$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.84	78	46.2%36 W · 42 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1752…682bbacked Heat	28c	69.94$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.83	57	36.8%21 W · 36 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2b…258abacked Pacers	44c	68.65$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.65	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.25per pick	58cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed Pacers	37c	67.14$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.3	212	42%89 W · 123 L	+12.8wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Heat	46c	65.31$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1,283	23.4%300 W · 983 L	-178.2wins	-0.14per pick	37cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x0204…0e31backed Heat	46c	65.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	289	49.1%142 W · 147 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x523e…3128backed Pacers	54c	65.22$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	39	48.7%19 W · 20 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Pacers	45c	63.64$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35	813	49.4%402 W · 411 L	+5.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce27…8a7dbacked Heat	47c	61.51$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.66	134	41%55 W · 79 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Pacers	42c	59.52$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.52	103	48.5%50 W · 53 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9d…3e29backed Heat	49c	55$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.8	120	40%48 W · 72 L	-10.4wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Heat	43c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Pacers	41c	41.25$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.2	1,633	41.2%672 W · 961 L	+26.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Pacers	61c	40.62$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.82	786	39.2%308 W · 478 L	+27.5wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b62…1253backed Heat	55c	40$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	207	56%116 W · 91 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Heat	51c	35$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.75	600	49.8%299 W · 301 L	+6.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe725…2b00backed Heat	43c	34.88$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee87…28edbacked Heat	65c	30.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	43	53.5%23 W · 20 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Pacers	59c	30.5$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.48	620	47.3%293 W · 327 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Heat	57c	23.25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.25	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ef2…79f9backed Pacers	52c	20.84$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Heat	55c	20.64$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.34	329	57.4%189 W · 140 L	+18.5wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1fc…7cc1backed Pacers	53c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.33	144	71.5%103 W · 41 L	+22.1wins	+0.15per pick	56cpaid	+25%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Heat (-7.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event