NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 243.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39fa67f8c5dcea974520cb1ba1dd9475e10bafdddf76bafa66465423dff7c39e

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Mar 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $39,010
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $42,507

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,010 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4959…d071backed Under	45c	2,937$1,322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,321.65	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae71…a972backed Under	45c	2,773$1,248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,247.85	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85bb…a360backed Over	55c	2,497$1,373 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,123.65	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.45per pick	55cpaid	+81.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead4…7cc5backed Over	55c	2,435$1,339 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,095.75	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.45per pick	55cpaid	+81.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaca…c1d7backed Over	55c	2,375$1,306 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,068.75	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.45per pick	55cpaid	+81.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	45c	2,159$977 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$976.64	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25a3…a447backed Over	55c	2,039$1,121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$917.55	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.45per pick	55cpaid	+81.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Over	54c	1,935$1,049 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$886.12	2,045	48.4%990 W · 1,055 L	-30.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x18d7…13bdbacked Under	45c	1,837$827 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$826.65	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe906…a6bbbacked Over	55c	1,754$965 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$789.3	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.45per pick	55cpaid	+81.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	47c	1,697$797 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$900.48	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x889b…9fbabacked Under	45c	1,660$747 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$747	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Under	44c	1,602$705 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$704.98	870	49.3%429 W · 441 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under	38c	1,584$597 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$597.3	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3af7…8c9bbacked Under	45c	1,560$702 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$702	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	34c	1,468$505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505.08	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	43c	1,419$615 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$615.38	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Over	57c	1,377$780 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$597.19	145	56.6%82 W · 63 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eb2…e05abacked Under	45c	1,208$544 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$543.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d22…4b50backed Over	55c	1,100$605 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$495	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	53c	883.78$472 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$411.38	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd93b…262ebacked Over	55c	875$481 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$393.75	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.45per pick	55cpaid	+81.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over	55c	558.71$308 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$251.05	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xadb3…dc13backed Under	57c	536.15$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.1	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	52c	489.23$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.18	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Over	79c	368.95$293 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.42	830	39.4%327 W · 503 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Under	47c	355$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.85	401	46.9%188 W · 213 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Over	55c	350$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156	324	50.3%163 W · 161 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under	44c	340.91$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	954	52.3%499 W · 455 L	-17.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over	53c	328$174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.16	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under	27c	308.58$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.36	214	43.9%94 W · 120 L	+7.8wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1489…9924backed Under	46c	305$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.3	193	48.2%93 W · 100 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Over	56c	288$161 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126.72	568	43.8%249 W · 319 L	-25.1wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Under	25c	254.25$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.27	445	51.2%228 W · 217 L	+11.6wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde18…e863backed Over	41c	243.9$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$143.9	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+22%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1030…dd7abacked Under	25c	242.5$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.63	133	49.6%66 W · 67 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Over	48c	239$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.28	112	42%47 W · 65 L	-13.8wins	-0.12per pick	54cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Under	44c	235.02$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.17	813	49.4%402 W · 411 L	+5.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x700a…58a5backed Under	6c	227.85$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.39	223	36.8%82 W · 141 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under	25c	227.01$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.53	516	47.5%245 W · 271 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Under	25c	221$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.17	533	48.4%258 W · 275 L	-8.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe9c…1700backed Under	25c	218.03$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.81	133	46.6%62 W · 71 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Under	47c	213.63$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.41	292	43.8%128 W · 164 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under	44c	182.02$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.36	1,399	46.4%649 W · 750 L	-13.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under	26c	172.85$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.8	1,286	50.8%653 W · 633 L	+11.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under	25c	169.55$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.75	1,084	50%542 W · 542 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8230…5121backed Under	19c	168.79$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.89	208	37.5%78 W · 130 L	+38.2wins	+0.18per pick	19cpaid	+115.2%equal weight	68+0.16 edge/pick
0x810d…6080backed Under	26c	158.23$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.35	160	46.3%74 W · 86 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe11c…c7f7backed Over	56c	157.14$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.14	92	60.9%56 W · 36 L	+10.3wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x57c6…fde6backed Under	10c	152.1$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under	44c	150.91$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.4	1,562	47.4%741 W · 821 L	-6.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Over	55c	150.15$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.57	1,141	48%548 W · 593 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under	45c	133$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.23	1,634	48.1%786 W · 848 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Over	57c	132$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.98	775	49.2%381 W · 394 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under	46c	129.86$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.74	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf90…8e17backed Over	55c	125.78$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.6	474	36.7%174 W · 300 L	-16.8wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b8c…31c3backed Under	26c	124.84$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.97	135	41.5%56 W · 79 L	-7.3wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Over	55c	100$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	47c	97$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.65	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac1a…813ebacked Under	46c	90.71$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.73	172	50.6%87 W · 85 L	+6.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ef7…0e08backed Over	55c	90.3$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.3	25	56%14 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under	45c	86.86$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.44	1,277	47.2%603 W · 674 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1752…682bbacked Over	58c	80$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.6	57	36.8%21 W · 36 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under	29c	79.5$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.97	1,532	42.5%651 W · 881 L	-17.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Over	69c	79.44$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.42	600	49.8%299 W · 301 L	+6.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under	26c	77.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.21	592	50.2%297 W · 295 L	+5.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Under	24c	72.19$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.05	414	49.3%204 W · 210 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbef6…48a3backed Over	56c	70$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31	55	47.3%26 W · 29 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefcb…f64abacked Under	48c	65$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.51	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	-7.2wins	-0.17per pick	49cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Under	47c	62.51$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.38	554	44.4%246 W · 308 L	-11.0wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0204…0e31backed Over	56c	53.57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	289	49.1%142 W · 147 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae02…7ed0backed Under	26c	53.33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.62	43	60.5%26 W · 17 L	+5.8wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	+15%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Under	47c	53.19$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1,393	48.3%673 W · 720 L	+19.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Under	25c	52.45$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.26	564	47.9%270 W · 294 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc798…a8e9backed Under	44c	46.93$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.65	248	41.9%104 W · 144 L	-9.7wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fa7…d4febacked Over	54c	40.74$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.74	108	50.9%55 W · 53 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Over	55c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	931	45.8%426 W · 505 L	-25.4wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77d1…eb7fbacked Under	43c	40$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01dc…183ebacked Under	25c	39.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.15	67	34.3%23 W · 44 L	-6.4wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Over	75c	38.6$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.72	766	53.5%410 W · 356 L	+65.5wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe85a…762abacked Over	55c	36.38$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.38	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.45per pick	55cpaid	+81.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Over	54c	36.33$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.71	492	49.8%245 W · 247 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under	34c	36.04$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.31	877	44.7%392 W · 485 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Over	54c	32.69$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.04	693	37.8%262 W · 431 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Under	46c	32.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	917	46.9%430 W · 487 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Under	52c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	118	43.2%51 W · 67 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e68…75bbbacked Over	74c	25$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.5	55	69.1%38 W · 17 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	65cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbee…30b9backed Under	46c	21.74$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	131	40.5%53 W · 78 L	-10.1wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Over	53c	19.79$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.3	625	41.9%262 W · 363 L	-32.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-11%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe33d…9512backed Over	55c	19.21$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.62	264	50%132 W · 132 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 243.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event