NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 246.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x099bfa5b911d701b26c6a4152bd31e1a3256848fe081fc31c37b87c52d5b7ccf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 48c | 32,106$15,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,410.71 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 52c | 22,429$11,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,866.14 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9b…945abacked Over | 52c | 17,983$9,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,631.6 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1776…e557backed Under | 50c | 11,866$5,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,932.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 51c | 8,345$4,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,074.12 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 49c | 8,213$4,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,058.95 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Under | 52c | 5,889$3,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,062.02 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 48c | 5,529$2,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,875.08 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked Over | 52c | 5,467$2,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,624.16 | 483 | 52%251 W · 232 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…1fb9backed Over | 50c | 4,455$2,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,227.5 | 316 | 43.4%137 W · 179 L | -18.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Over | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,959.99 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 48c | 2,997$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444.91 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…b7b7backed Under | 50c | 2,910$1,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,454.77 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeaa…2ddfbacked Under | 50c | 2,400$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked Over | 49c | 1,397$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.7 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 52c | 1,154$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.85 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…4767backed Over | 50c | 1,145$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.47 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…2f90backed Under | 52c | 956.57$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 849.25$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.41 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 48c | 816$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.32 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 40c | 481.65$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.43 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…e032backed Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 190 | 45.8%87 W · 103 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee62…bc6abacked Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…796bbacked Under | 53c | 287.67$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.21 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 48c | 219.45$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.34 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…a6efbacked Under | 23c | 204.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55a7…569ebacked Under | 50c | 201$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…4856backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 241 | 51%123 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa10e…4ea1backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d5…2bb6backed Over | 52c | 175$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 47c | 141.91$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.21 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Under | 52c | 137$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 52c | 135.61$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.62 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Over | 47c | 126.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.23 | 292 | 45.5%133 W · 159 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 48c | 113.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 48c | 113.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.06 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd42…c4aebacked Under | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x434e…a62ebacked Over | 52c | 109.33$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 68c | 103.92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 600 | 49.8%299 W · 301 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 53c | 101.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 221 | 43.4%96 W · 125 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…8b45backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Under | 49c | 98.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 423 | 52.5%222 W · 201 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 52c | 95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Under | 53c | 94.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Over | 52c | 67.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 672 | 48.8%328 W · 344 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb402…42cebacked Over | 52c | 65.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Over | 50c | 56.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 388 | 53.4%207 W · 181 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 48c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 49c | 44.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 49c | 38.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 49c | 36.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 405 | 48.6%197 W · 208 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 38c | 28.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Under | 49c | 28.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d0…bf9dbacked Under | 63c | 23.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -6.6wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Over | 52c | 23.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…8a76backed Over | 52c | 23.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 52c | 21.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 498 | 52.6%262 W · 236 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9f…5734backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fc…7cc1backed Under | 54c | 19.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 144 | 71.5%103 W · 41 L | +22.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f0…7d99backed Over | 52c | 19.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba86…6831backed Over | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.6wins | +0.36per pick | 57cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 246.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-5.5)Pacers won
- Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Heat vs. PacersPacers won
- Heat vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylinePacers won
- Heat vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 125.5Over won
- Heat vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 126.5Over won
- Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 243.5Over won
- Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 244.5Over won
- Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 245.5Over won
- Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 247.5Over won
- Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 258.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 260.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 263.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 266.5Under won
- Jarace Walker: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.