TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Pacers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pacersof Heat, Pacers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,012,863
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,348,394

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,012,863 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,446 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Heat70c431,882$303,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303,977.684,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Pacers25c302,085$74,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227,087.9836549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Pacers24c150,520$35,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114,632.7716841.1%69 W · 99 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pacers33c84,155$27,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,579.754,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Heat76c53,474$40,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,622.6966248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Pacers32c51,286$16,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,920.1120744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Pacers24c47,491$11,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,093.4870147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Pacers33c46,457$15,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,111.9528241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e3a…3246backed Pacers34c46,112$15,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,433.6719954.8%109 W · 90 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Heat65c44,671$29,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,083.6823147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00d5…ed84backed Pacers21c42,674$8,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,712.417050%85 W · 85 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Heat65c42,347$27,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,325.53,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Heat0c42,200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.25251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Heat76c40,000$30,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,399.9843148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Pacers23c39,650$9,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,530.4429245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Heat74c35,881$26,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,493.0729055.5%161 W · 129 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ccc…f2dabacked Heat75c32,000$24,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,029.965064%32 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Pacers22c29,942$6,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,373.0432540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…884ebacked Pacers37c23,286$8,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,755.668225.6%21 W · 61 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Heat78c22,872$17,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,774.21,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec7e…5fddbacked Pacers38c20,480$7,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,792.083554.3%19 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+19.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Pacers24c20,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,20031445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Pacers47c19,808$9,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,538.642,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5919…95acbacked Heat77c19,615$15,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,133.6211543.5%50 W · 65 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Heat1c19,569$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.575213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9e5…1809backed Heat76c18,200$13,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,8364459.1%26 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Pacers34c17,605$5,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,701.2856646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Heat68c17,374$11,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,779.72,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Heat65c16,180$10,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,478.250241.2%207 W · 295 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d90…1310backed Pacers49c15,852$7,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,073.3815274.3%113 W · 39 L+22.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+24.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Heat69c15,647$10,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,851.171,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked Pacers17c15,625$2,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,927.545655.4%31 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Pacers23c15,285$3,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,731.014,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Pacers23c15,000$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,550.071,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Heat63c15,000$9,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,504.1349244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cde…b97dbacked Heat78c15,000$11,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,70012251.6%63 W · 59 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bb0…35e3backed Heat0c15,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Pacers31c15,000$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,40048845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd669…46ecbacked Heat77c14,739$11,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,323.59520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-50.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pacers42c14,699$6,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,526.135,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Pacers29c14,466$4,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,251.222,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Pacers40c13,835$5,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,362.122025%5 W · 15 L-5.3wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-55.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x04de…e928backed Heat76c12,538$9,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,528.88250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Pacers37c12,399$4,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,764.4130157.1%172 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Heat76c11,735$8,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,864.053,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4108…9e22backed Heat65c11,144$7,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,255.95036%18 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Heat22c11,033$2,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,482.2783039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Pacers27c10,671$2,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,789.836841.2%28 W · 40 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Heat63c10,518$6,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,661.736023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Pacers29c10,280$2,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,337.631,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe0…d994backed Pacers23c10,000$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,70037448.7%182 W · 192 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5798…ab44backed Heat75c10,000$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,50015740.8%64 W · 93 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Pacers23c10,000$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,699.968827.3%24 W · 64 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Heat23c9,996$2,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.091,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0867…c3f4backed Heat15c9,586$1,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,398.2420644.7%92 W · 114 L+13.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Heat77c9,552$7,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,367.2316942%71 W · 98 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c8a…8723backed Pacers38c9,209$3,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,732.955633.9%19 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-40.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Heat71c8,815$6,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,224.4442348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Pacers21c8,778$1,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,933.8786641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6557…0999backed Heat66c8,600$5,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,63313946.8%65 W · 74 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77d3…f4d6backed Pacers22c8,362$1,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,542.6129250%146 W · 146 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a2…5639backed Pacers24c8,302$1,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,309.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…e17dbacked Pacers21c8,300$1,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,5575032%16 W · 34 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4870…85f7backed Heat79c8,300$6,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,556.924445.5%20 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Pacers24c7,660$1,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,821.871,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Pacers21c7,500$1,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,915.643438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Heat11c7,431$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841.121417.8%11 W · 130 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8cbc…c413backed Heat68c7,351$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0003056.7%17 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Heat66c7,207$4,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,756.3274748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Heat0c7,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2127917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Heat61c6,667$4,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,051.012,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Pacers25c6,666$1,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,999.541832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d66…7799backed Pacers33c6,435$2,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,299.591850%9 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe64f…7d71backed Heat75c6,300$4,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,7251752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe998…b7f0backed Pacers24c5,980$1,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,544.823040%12 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fe0…6e30backed Heat48c5,675$2,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,727.543522.9%8 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-22%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Pacers21c5,400$1,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,243.7665939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3a8…06d9backed Pacers24c5,240$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,982.42832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Heat60c5,026$3,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,004.521,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Heat76c5,000$3,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,800.319751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8650…b8babacked Heat76c5,000$3,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,780.582556%14 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Heat76c5,000$3,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,800.1518045%81 W · 99 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Heat77c5,000$3,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,85038434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb917…02c6backed Heat78c5,000$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,90017940.2%72 W · 107 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc86a…bcabbacked Pacers24c5,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8001764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe558…dcd2backed Heat67c4,772$3,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,178.749349.5%46 W · 47 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+22.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0336…4bb0backed Heat77c4,745$3,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6542347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Pacers34c4,651$1,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,069.6637755.2%208 W · 169 L+23.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+60.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Heat77c4,602$3,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,554.034,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Heat59c4,500$2,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,642.6478445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40d5…79a5backed Pacers23c4,348$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,347.83450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+71.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7fa…f6dfbacked Heat61c4,325$2,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,641.832634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f3b…0cf9backed Heat65c4,279$2,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,793.1822159.7%132 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01ae…4385backed Heat76c4,239$3,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,221.93742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6368…6dc8backed Heat71c4,225$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00010352.4%54 W · 49 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Pacers28c4,200$1,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,023.9610743%46 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Pacers20c4,192$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,353.7762347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Heat76c4,073$3,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,077.2431046.8%145 W · 165 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Heat76c4,048$3,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,063.522,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Heat0c4,047$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.828820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.