NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 125.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ef0d6c6ea1ded8701f7810f21f4b2c5b1a6b48dd58874132dae8ed4627baff9

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Mar 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,268
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,534

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,268 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbce5…02f1backed Over	51c	999.96$510 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$489.98	186	51.6%96 W · 90 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Over	53c	744.68$395 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$350	877	50.2%440 W · 437 L	-19.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcb8…2f90backed Under	47c	744.68$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	88	44.3%39 W · 49 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	49c	483.9$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.11	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Under	49c	200$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	326	54.6%178 W · 148 L	+22.0wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Under	49c	111.16$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.47	100	42%42 W · 58 L	-5.4wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Under	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	455	42.4%193 W · 262 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c2…190dbacked Over	51c	58.82$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.82	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56cd…2ddcbacked Under	49c	51.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	118	45.8%54 W · 64 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dcf…f174backed Under	49c	51.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-2.8wins	-0.18per pick	49cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa1fc…7cc1backed Over	52c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	144	71.5%103 W · 41 L	+22.1wins	+0.15per pick	56cpaid	+25%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Heat vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 125.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event