NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 247.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4745281b3fe5972f6c278a9c2b67564e408e521dcaaf3b6e8c0c6ac5fdb8493

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Mar 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $88,548
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $99,829

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,548 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa710…23c4backed Under	53c	70,657$37,448 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37,448.2	326	53.1%173 W · 153 L	+19.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over	47c	41,396$19,498 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21,897.75	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Over	47c	8,216$3,862 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,354.48	113	35.4%40 W · 73 L	-8.0wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed Over	47c	4,255$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,255.32	81	54.3%44 W · 37 L	+3.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Over	47c	2,883$1,355 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,527.98	702	46.4%326 W · 376 L	-20.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x975b…3760backed Over	47c	2,797$1,315 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,482.4	55	47.3%26 W · 29 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e7d…eaa6backed Over	47c	2,585$1,215 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,370.11	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under	54c	2,566$1,398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,397.7	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x61e8…b283backed Over	46c	2,169$998 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,171.25	149	40.9%61 W · 88 L	-11.6wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Over	47c	2,000$940 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,060	870	49.3%429 W · 441 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Over	47c	1,909$897 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,011.51	72	45.8%33 W · 39 L	-4.4wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over	47c	1,874$881 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$993.08	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91f7…4767backed Over	47c	1,450$682 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$768.61	106	51.9%55 W · 51 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	50c	1,392$696 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$696.22	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over	45c	1,221$549 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$671.45	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Over	47c	847.87$398 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$449.37	178	50%89 W · 89 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	54c	677.42$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.81	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Over	47c	638.3$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$338.3	277	46.6%129 W · 148 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dad…4855backed Under	54c	500$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	89	51.7%46 W · 43 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18d5…2bb6backed Over	47c	400$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$212	62	50%31 W · 31 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0556…132abacked Over	46c	400$184 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216	93	46.2%43 W · 50 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over	47c	339.16$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$179.75	1,212	48.3%586 W · 626 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Under	55c	230$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.5	249	55.8%139 W · 110 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ca4…aa92backed Under	54c	222.22$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	111	57.7%64 W · 47 L	+5.2wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under	22c	220.99$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.62	522	30.3%158 W · 364 L	+20.4wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Over	45c	199.96$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.98	326	54.6%178 W · 148 L	+22.0wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x55a7…569ebacked Under	48c	195.65$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.91	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b01…75dfbacked Over	47c	180.85$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.85	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59ce…6f07backed Over	47c	180$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.4	213	47.9%102 W · 111 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Over	46c	160$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.4	224	53.1%119 W · 105 L	+29.4wins	+0.13per pick	40cpaid	+29.6%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	52c	97$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.56	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x647c…a772backed Over	52c	96.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.15	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-2.2wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Over	47c	95.74$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.74	218	43.6%95 W · 123 L	-15.1wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Over	46c	50$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	635	55.6%353 W · 282 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over	45c	30.04$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.52	1,758	48.7%856 W · 902 L	+28.3wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea34…8efcbacked Over	47c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.9	165	51.5%85 W · 80 L	-6.6wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb275…c76fbacked Under	61c	22.57$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.71	155	51.6%80 W · 75 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 247.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event