TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Pacers: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pacersof Heat, Pacers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,733
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,447

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,733 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa9f5…937fbacked Pacers35c937.87$325 inWon+$613.151,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa485…92a5backed Heat26c767.37$200 inLost-$200.53148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Heat23c650$150 inLost-$149.522036.8%81 W · 139 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pacers54c552.88$301 inWon+$251.585,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4835…8f59backed Heat64c521.85$336 inLost-$336.3328657.3%164 W · 122 L+1.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Heat49c305.12$150 inLost-$15057444.1%253 W · 321 L-20.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6528…2dcebacked Heat80c123.73$99 inLost-$98.777766.2%51 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Pacers34c117.85$40 inWon+$77.8536248.1%174 W · 188 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1752…682bbacked Heat28c103.5$29 inLost-$28.985736.8%21 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Pacers20c79.47$16 inWon+$63.2650651.2%259 W · 247 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9775…ed41backed Heat50c70.95$35 inLost-$35.142962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7f7…e73bbacked Heat50c55.29$28 inLost-$27.5923139.8%92 W · 139 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Pacers62c50$31 inWon+$1919650.5%99 W · 97 L+8.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2270…ca8cbacked Heat69c42.38$29 inLost-$29.34475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+22.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Pacers33c40$13 inWon+$26.860049.8%299 W · 301 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2996…73debacked Heat68c30.84$21 inLost-$2113744.5%61 W · 76 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Heat70c25$18 inLost-$17.577549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.