TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on March 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$62,004

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,004 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 244 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf33c…bf48backed No2c2,875$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.392326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-26.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes54c1,638$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.7210327.2%28 W · 75 L-0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8209…62b6backed Yes43c1,434$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.969625%24 W · 72 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51ae…ce30backed No5c1,191$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.743542.9%15 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x976d…430cbacked No48c1,171$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.37100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed No39c735.08$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.6941845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdda…310cbacked Yes66c718.41$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.346737.3%25 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed No17c677.17$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.221,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x883a…f76bbacked No67c592.59$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.984744.7%21 W · 26 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-22.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2dca…4bc5backed No55c547.15$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003262.5%20 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc229…dbeabacked Yes58c517.16$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-42.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes49c501.74$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.094,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ced…7ce8backed Yes54c498.61$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.2413748.2%66 W · 71 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No41c470.76$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.3558349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No13c465.04$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6059742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x6aa2…05fbbacked No44c459.94$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.633441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes79c450.94$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.525549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f9c…7e2fbacked Yes57c427.35$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.811968.4%13 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No42c415.93$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.771,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes49c408.89$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.571,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes56c407.98$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.2556627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46bb…4c35backed Yes59c400.5$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.524100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes21c385.82$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.341,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed No24c375.09$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.2327540%110 W · 165 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes59c326.34$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.9226827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed No5c300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.22347.3%17 W · 217 L+0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes48c290.57$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.9513533.3%45 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No57c278.83$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.033,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes80c276.43$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2941046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes48c271.61$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.292832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.7wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-41.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No52c266.29$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.2328737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf177…d1b5backed Yes48c264.37$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.37333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-30.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes44c258.73$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.7423035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes33c247.08$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.92,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked No21c240.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3915923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes38c229.03$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.8211731.6%37 W · 80 L-19.1wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-39.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x270b…9b20backed No9c225.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96aa…a84cbacked Yes59c220.34$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.34250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes52c217.74$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.952,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No48c217.27$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.3986050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8988…98f2backed Yes33c216.54$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.9580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+44.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes53c214.77$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.932133.3%107 W · 214 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc472…b96cbacked Yes40c210.81$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.515928.8%17 W · 42 L-12.2wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-54.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xea89…26abbacked No48c208.86$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.842369.6%16 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e3e…d2acbacked Yes47c206.43$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.361729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No23c200.83$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.467,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked No69c200.01$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8256118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7141…7900backed Yes50c200$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.158433.3%28 W · 56 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x745c…970fbacked Yes48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.6714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick41cpaid-70.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1fd8…1de3backed No45c199.99$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c83…cf0abacked No64c191.01$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.531957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No33c188.18$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No43c183.66$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9232652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27cd…c7adbacked No55c181.45$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004235.7%15 W · 27 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-33.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No51c172.25$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.591,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x983a…ca05backed No63c171.6$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.752437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-24.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e06…42f0backed No22c169.47$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.651346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b5c…4568backed No58c169.41$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.073748.6%18 W · 19 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x61e0…4b62backed Yes60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No43c150.27$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.524,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6316…7488backed No56c149.99$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9915334%52 W · 101 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x040b…bbc5backed No46c145.93$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.995444.4%24 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No58c145$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9531868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5cb…d64bbacked Yes50c145$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.5742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe1e…7ee3backed Yes56c142.85$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.854946.9%23 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed Yes49c136.48$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.243644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-22.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No41c130.51$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.083,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes51c130$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.271,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x71af…6b3dbacked Yes55c126.46$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.053560%21 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes74c126.42$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2432548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed No43c124.36$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0836648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No42c122.34$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.161,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62e1…4e25backed No48c119.5$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.293557.1%20 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4058…9dc6backed Yes11c118.6$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.15520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+76.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf483…3f62backed Yes33c118.33$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.13710.8%4 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c115.28$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.3617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11bf…882ebacked No56c113.38$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.15450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3557…ae87backed No32c112.5$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c110$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.252,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes59c108$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.781,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c106.84$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.029,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No24c103.94$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.751,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc980…4e72backed No21c102.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.845151%26 W · 25 L-6.1wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-18.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No13c102.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4236819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4122…6c07backed Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553554.3%19 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+53.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf46f…42a2backed No43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f02…5f35backed No44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb385…f4b2backed Yes56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5032444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49d7…1635backed Yes47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0cf…baa4backed Yes59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414228.6%12 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9450…685abacked Yes11c100$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.067521.3%16 W · 59 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3489…7fffbacked No67c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+40.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes70c99.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3043021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No22c99.86$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.771,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed No25c98.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0499949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb733…e5edbacked Yes31c97.84$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.85475%3 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.50per pick25cpaid+134%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x48c2…4901backed Yes51c97.69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.