TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,892

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,892 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes1c2,600$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes9c505.63$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0235323.2%82 W · 271 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes19c417.56$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.21,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes18c404.15$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3541845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x883a…f76bbacked No65c403.05$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.174744.7%21 W · 26 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-22.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No79c384$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.442857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes25c349.99$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.856627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes21c341.31$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7025536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes7c270$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.733232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes19c265.89$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0126827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes25c250.5$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0415626.3%41 W · 115 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes16c248.36$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.831,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes6c244.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.660519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No76c239.59$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.561,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37a2…4965backed Yes14c238.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.815228.8%15 W · 37 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+43.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes36c237.41$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.4723035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes9c231.28$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.492347.3%17 W · 217 L+0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes22c222.2$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No78c220.08$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.659,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes25c212.35$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.322,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No74c199.99$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.1658349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes24c187.46$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.642,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes24c182.59$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.197518.7%14 W · 61 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6316…7488backed Yes9c177.73$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7915334%52 W · 101 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa994…19a6backed Yes17c173.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.04520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-65.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes24c167.06$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.898,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes20c166.65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3313215.9%21 W · 111 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No76c161.53$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.434,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes21c150$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.530428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes22c148.57$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes29c147.83$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.641,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No78c134.06$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.551,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa06e…eba4backed Yes22c133.42$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.754520%9 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes28c130$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.541,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9450…685abacked Yes17c128.13$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.067521.3%16 W · 59 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes16c128$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8615923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x343f…bb4dbacked No72c127.79$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.0213533.3%45 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes24c126.25$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304332.6%14 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c14…2f42backed Yes19c121.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes30c120.05$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2232044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes15c120$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe423…2492backed Yes22c120$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.11464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+21.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No78c105.03$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.111,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0cf…baa4backed Yes26c100.6$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.94228.6%12 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4122…6c07backed Yes35c100.18$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.063554.3%19 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+53.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x03d8…5e9abacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2211038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7141…7900backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228433.3%28 W · 56 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xac45…844fbacked Yes31c96.79$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303423.5%8 W · 26 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-54.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes13c93.39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.492,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No66c93.01$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4328737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86cb…6c6dbacked No77c91.83$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.58944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf641…2b4abacked Yes14c90$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.914915.4%23 W · 126 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes13c89.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.737644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed No74c88.06$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes23c83.6$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.897,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No78c82.37$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1570770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes27c81.8$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8632133.3%107 W · 214 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No64c81.79$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.111,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Yes36c78.7$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.336445.3%29 W · 35 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b4a…255dbacked Yes26c77.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.41030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e53…b65ebacked Yes26c77.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes26c73.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.262,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes24c70$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.922028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No75c68.64$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9886050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No78c67.2$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.943,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43f2…09a5backed Yes26c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.68124.7%20 W · 61 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8ad…411abacked No76c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f10…0060backed Yes34c59.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.56931.9%22 W · 47 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No75c52.67$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.21,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36f7…4a5abacked No78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115829.3%17 W · 41 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.865627.4%180 W · 476 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1533243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9223738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe34d…41f0backed Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.512147.9%58 W · 63 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55cf…b347backed No73c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5445…f68abacked Yes21c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes33c49.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.554232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x983a…ca05backed No78c49.74$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.882437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-24.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbce…507dbacked Yes32c46.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.887832.1%25 W · 53 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x419e…4cd4backed No78c44.2$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.72520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-74.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes25c43.28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.011643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbf…cf4bbacked Yes24c42.55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2110058%58 W · 42 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64bd…82cfbacked No71c41.96$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1218761%114 W · 73 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x814a…ab7abacked No79c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61283.3%10 W · 2 L+3.3wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+54.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x98e9…a2f8backed No73c36.84$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9511872.9%86 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46bb…4c35backed No76c35.68$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.564100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1869…9449backed Yes30c35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+30.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f9c…7e2fbacked No73c34.23$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.411968.4%13 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b5c…4568backed No74c30.76$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83748.6%18 W · 19 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed No79c30.58$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4236648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.115558.1%90 W · 65 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No70c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.44,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c26.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.035,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47ab…a0c0backed No76c23.96$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed No65c23.04$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0412329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.