Weather · resolved market
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5797d31db90e13bfc23383f77504f169aed6e4c6f4e5bcea5e67b992d1e1f5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9060…790bbacked Yes | 28c | 3,357$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,422.12 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 66c | 1,656$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.06 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 73c | 1,431$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.9 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed No | 61c | 1,409$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.4 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ab…5468backed Yes | 28c | 885.73$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.46 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x565e…875dbacked Yes | 17c | 588.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.92 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 37c | 490.32$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.29 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed No | 72c | 411.98$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.78 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd63a…9603backed Yes | 49c | 407.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 39c | 406.02$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.51 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked No | 26c | 354.92$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.49 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed No | 75c | 209.24$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.2 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 193.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 37c | 188.89$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.73 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 39c | 181.1$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd779…06c3backed Yes | 78c | 178.33$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…f436backed Yes | 22c | 175.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.76 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f8…8033backed Yes | 77c | 144.06$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 22c | 142.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.01 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf34f…fb11backed Yes | 35c | 135.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +133%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed Yes | 50c | 131.42$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 48c | 125.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed No | 74c | 123.56$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 120$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc301…6760backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5651…66a6backed Yes | 69c | 107.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0313…67dbbacked Yes | 62c | 107.8$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked No | 23c | 105.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 47c | 100.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…988cbacked Yes | 24c | 88.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 55c | 88.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 20c | 85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.14 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…3f15backed Yes | 52c | 76.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 73c | 76.32$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b6…93ccbacked Yes | 27c | 74.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed No | 44c | 74.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked No | 63c | 69.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +5.5wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 75c | 67.94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d26…50b5backed Yes | 73c | 66.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked No | 76c | 65.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac07…7156backed No | 79c | 58.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked Yes | 22c | 55.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…b441backed Yes | 48c | 55.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked Yes | 79c | 50.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 29c | 48.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…ec11backed No | 67c | 46.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x697a…d5aabacked Yes | 76c | 41.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 75c | 40.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfb…6b27backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 52c | 39.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked No | 78c | 38.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…8795backed Yes | 72c | 37.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 33c | 37.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 40c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…5fadbacked Yes | 69c | 31.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 65c | 30.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd16c…9100backed Yes | 66c | 30.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d42…718abacked No | 72c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb42a…13a5backed No | 73c | 29.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a6…b9debacked Yes | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf08d…d45fbacked Yes | 78c | 25.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecc…f120backed Yes | 64c | 23.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 55c | 20.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?this page
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?No won
- Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?No won
- Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?No won
- Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?No won
- Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?No won
- Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.