TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,517,133
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,498,717

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,517,133 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 6,051 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1c02…efd0backed No38c6,253,972$2,351,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,351,313.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Yes62c1,006,734$624,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382,626.419142.9%39 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cb4…1057backed Yes64c1,000,000$640,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359,999.862147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed No37c860,780$314,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314,758.3777152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1887…678abacked No39c800,732$315,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315,925.86425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-58.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5966…f804backed Yes64c648,393$414,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233,439.492669.2%18 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+26.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Yes62c334,120$205,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128,597.829247.8%44 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9243…658ebacked No37c299,984$111,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,994.0215249.3%75 W · 77 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes67c297,908$200,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97,864.144,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Yes64c294,808$188,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106,130.820844.7%93 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes66c292,809$193,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99,7278,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2b5…4582backed Yes62c269,769$167,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102,514.65839.7%23 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes64c262,954$167,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95,779.311,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed No39c256,698$100,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100,00019644.9%88 W · 108 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Yes61c224,011$136,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87,150.2649441.5%205 W · 289 L+27.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x709e…66f5backed Yes61c200,000$122,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78,00011642.2%49 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x381b…4d74backed Yes61c160,000$97,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,4008440.5%34 W · 50 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Yes62c157,925$97,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,011.511647.4%55 W · 61 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed Yes63c155,000$97,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,3507455.4%41 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes70c154,455$108,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,388.232,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ac…b964backed Yes60c150,000$90,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,5005749.1%28 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes62c139,016$86,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,741.971,56043.8%684 W · 876 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f65…2036backed Yes63c138,924$87,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,401.7114248.6%69 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Yes64c135,805$86,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,936.9874752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes61c114,761$70,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,711.0774447.8%356 W · 388 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Yes63c110,999$69,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,069.645263.5%33 W · 19 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes70c110,155$77,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,942.21,22443.4%531 W · 693 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Yes61c100,000$61,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,0006627.3%18 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed No39c99,999$39,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,999.577949.4%39 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9896…a925backed Yes63c98,188$61,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,329.673036.7%11 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a14…e02fbacked Yes62c96,609$59,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,711.26333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3c7…c83bbacked Yes62c93,236$57,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,862.086448.4%31 W · 33 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe549…2d54backed Yes62c85,221$52,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,383.9515552.3%81 W · 74 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Yes63c84,934$53,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,083.51,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73c5…2f80backed No23c72,831$16,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,868.4415844.3%70 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-22.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9744…4789backed Yes63c69,732$44,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,453.481241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e64…3c99backed Yes64c69,442$44,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,999.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa66c…cd67backed Yes63c65,024$40,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,058.818047.8%86 W · 94 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes63c64,288$40,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,481.938734.4%133 W · 254 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdef6…f63abacked Yes61c62,852$38,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,512.39520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-67.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed No36c61,268$22,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,075.6929952.5%157 W · 142 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes61c59,097$36,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,923.7621836.2%79 W · 139 L-19.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8fe2…2c95backed Yes66c58,996$38,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,050.422045%9 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+49.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Yes69c58,733$40,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,176.0842541.6%177 W · 248 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4761…5ae8backed Yes62c56,167$34,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,463.43040%12 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe964…03cbbacked Yes68c44,971$30,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,482.281136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-33.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Yes62c39,669$24,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,074.2815441.6%64 W · 90 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2862…5586backed Yes63c36,327$22,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,606.333237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid+1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x447f…a05ebacked Yes64c36,000$23,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,9603562.9%22 W · 13 L+5.0wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+27.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x36a7…b6e9backed Yes61c35,920$21,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,008.88046.3%37 W · 43 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No36c35,744$12,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,717.8616835.1%59 W · 109 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf751…fec8backed Yes63c34,225$21,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,663.29747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes65c33,912$21,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,946.573,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed No37c32,929$12,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,050.913638.9%14 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes64c31,224$19,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,258.751228.9%148 W · 364 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x313d…4b1abacked Yes63c30,333$19,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,223.331020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-70.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed Yes64c30,327$19,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,917.5417452.3%91 W · 83 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes63c30,085$18,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,122.144252.4%22 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked No36c30,000$10,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,8008943.8%39 W · 50 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8a5…122bbacked Yes62c30,000$18,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,4007941.8%33 W · 46 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09dd…7e13backed Yes62c29,580$18,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,306.437944.1%167 W · 212 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1e6…e1c2backed Yes74c27,027$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,027.034158.5%24 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9826…e7febacked Yes62c26,000$16,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,7704953.1%26 W · 23 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+73.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked Yes61c25,144$15,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,806.172934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-30.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa80e…6aa1backed No40c25,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00027345.8%125 W · 148 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbcfb…efc0backed Yes63c25,000$15,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,2507129.6%21 W · 50 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-37.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes61c24,805$15,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,614.7676048.7%370 W · 390 L-2.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8488…588cbacked Yes62c24,000$14,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,1204353.5%23 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Yes62c23,273$14,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,855.5336031.7%114 W · 246 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed No34c23,075$7,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,865.9924441.8%102 W · 142 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes65c22,812$14,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,074.5979231.1%246 W · 546 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Yes62c22,000$13,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,359.9929646.3%137 W · 159 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes63c21,286$13,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,877.61,94135.5%690 W · 1,251 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes62c20,000$12,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,6009642.7%41 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3a3…c2f9backed Yes62c20,000$12,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,6003161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes67c20,000$13,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,599.8917842.7%76 W · 102 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf285…ab24backed No36c19,999$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,199.819253.3%49 W · 43 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+19.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8944…41d5backed Yes65c19,035$12,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,728.652740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f7c…7a19backed Yes62c18,905$11,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,206.3818943.4%82 W · 107 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba1d…d326backed No27c18,032$4,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,784.1321946.1%101 W · 118 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53e4…e19bbacked Yes55c17,917$9,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,062.67333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No41c17,666$7,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,262.4456541.1%232 W · 333 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked No36c17,519$6,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,356.4847144.8%211 W · 260 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b88…8f33backed Yes60c17,000$10,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,779.996149.2%30 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbe6…00f8backed Yes64c16,617$10,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,062.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2a3…3688backed Yes61c16,528$10,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,446.061553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2c1…4cf3backed Yes61c16,393$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,393.442740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2fc…b1b4backed Yes68c16,328$11,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,195.1336634.4%126 W · 240 L-24.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-38.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x98c3…b28dbacked Yes62c16,129$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,129.033053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes62c16,000$9,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,0807839.7%31 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42c9…a8bcbacked Yes63c15,873$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,873.021323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Yes62c15,770$9,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,992.613235.6%47 W · 85 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3169…ac5abacked Yes63c15,665$9,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,795.892227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-41.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc4c1…6b32backed Yes64c15,625$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,62520448.5%99 W · 105 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ca1…c008backed Yes64c15,625$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,625333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed No37c15,586$5,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,689.3848441.9%203 W · 281 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Yes78c15,303$12,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,298.4242043.1%181 W · 239 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb7c…03f9backed Yes65c15,145$9,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,300.8119152.4%100 W · 91 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes62c15,000$9,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,70011443%49 W · 65 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a2…14b8backed Yes61c15,000$9,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,85010734.6%37 W · 70 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.