Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca63210f2b5cd0c52cad7cfd762d88846462bcf8f77ab75df17da1e54999172d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes | 15c | 4,404$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.58 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 14c | 4,290$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.05 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 66c | 2,720$1,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.42 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 45c | 2,190$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.57 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…0c8abacked Yes | 3c | 1,342$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 14c | 1,140$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.98 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 8c | 931.6$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 813.58$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.2 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 813$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 2c | 734.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 4c | 564.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x592d…4b16backed No | 37c | 504.92$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.46 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 49c | 476.3$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.13 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 471.4$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.84 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked Yes | 72c | 432.8$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.45 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed No | 75c | 325.48$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.01 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 4c | 321.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 20c | 302.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb98c…8f64backed No | 43c | 300$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 80c | 274.41$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 80c | 259.38$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfafe…066fbacked No | 79c | 205.24$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd63a…9603backed Yes | 49c | 203.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x656b…eeccbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 39c | 197.03$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.75 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 172.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1840…03b1backed Yes | 16c | 167.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 150.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 149.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 71c | 134.86$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 128$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 78c | 127.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 124.97$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 33c | 119.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Yes | 26c | 115.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed No | 43c | 114.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 104.95$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 15c | 104.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 59c | 103.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 76c | 98.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 76c | 96.31$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 18c | 88.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 77c | 82.55$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 75c | 82$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 32c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 79.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 78.58$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…0702backed Yes | 22c | 77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 76.75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 50c | 76.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 73.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 58c | 71.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 46c | 65.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 26c | 63.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d3…def7backed Yes | 22c | 63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…7816backed No | 65c | 61.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 68cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 42c | 60.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…2de0backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 77c | 57.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 68c | 56.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed Yes | 40c | 56.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa1…f1e6backed No | 68c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61b0…f7f2backed No | 78c | 54.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 21c | 54.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…bc60backed Yes | 36c | 53.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 57c | 53.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 39c | 51.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 79c | 51.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 50.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 49c | 50.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda88…97d3backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 49c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bc…2c49backed Yes | 45c | 44.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…d4bfbacked No | 73c | 42.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 73c | 42.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8b…585cbacked No | 78c | 41.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 63c | 41.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 71c | 39.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 77c | 39.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a03…8feabacked Yes | 45c | 35.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0663…2c70backed No | 78c | 35.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 32.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 62c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abb…bf93backed No | 67c | 29.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 70c | 28.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 57c | 27.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 67c | 25.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.