Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdbb2e0c74a2b37349d40e99299e07667df5790f58c4a23d8cd57c5a277172a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 13,140$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.14 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…b752backed Yes | 0c | 5,595$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 1c | 4,304$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,196$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 1,152$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 899.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.6 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 6c | 702.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 4c | 640.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x506b…b0febacked Yes | 30c | 637.85$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.63 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 37c | 394.48$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.33 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 65c | 351.2$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.71 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 3c | 341.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 15c | 249$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 65c | 237.02$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.32 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 17c | 193.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8f…9166backed Yes | 27c | 186.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 178.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 10c | 148.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e5…3d01backed No | 70c | 144.65$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 11c | 135.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 80c | 129.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 11c | 119.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 117.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 74c | 94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 89.53$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 62c | 69.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 72c | 68.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 66c | 66.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 66.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 65.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 62c | 65.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 40c | 62.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 34c | 59.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda88…97d3backed Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 49.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 33c | 48.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 71c | 47.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x598c…13b3backed Yes | 32c | 45.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.35per pick | 29cpaid | +154.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 25c | 44.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 63c | 41.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 32c | 41.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827d…b1f0backed No | 71c | 39.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 66c | 33.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 20.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec8c…cf71backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x214e…3be0backed No | 72c | 17.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 74c | 17.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 16.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 66c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…2de0backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.