Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32dc8cf7fb4872c40685ba6624caec767b32b9fba77edcc8284c13258ee99ac0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed No | 2c | 14,052$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.09 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed No | 73c | 11,224$8,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,247.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 28c | 5,387$1,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,892.23 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Yes | 76c | 4,884$3,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed Yes | 11c | 1,932$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,728.33 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 25c | 1,843$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.33 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 14c | 1,771$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.76 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 3c | 1,542$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.5 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 26c | 1,008$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.12 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 805.19$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.68 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 2c | 683.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.29 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x506b…b0febacked Yes | 33c | 679.78$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.23 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 9c | 576.49$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed No | 53c | 540.39$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.91 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 519.66$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.03 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 471.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 70c | 469.35$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.81 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 7c | 422.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 5c | 361.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.11 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 357.22$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…500abacked No | 64c | 317.97$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 19c | 287.72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 16c | 285.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked Yes | 65c | 277.73$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.39 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 66c | 274.42$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.4 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 18c | 253.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 224$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.95 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.96 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 21c | 199.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.49 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 58c | 146.66$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.22 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 40c | 127.06$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.89 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 36c | 119.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…4551backed Yes | 67c | 117.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 59c | 116.5$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.48 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 77c | 116$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.32 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 65c | 111.61$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.55 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 111.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.63 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…ba43backed Yes | 77c | 110.34$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 46c | 104.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 12c | 92.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.1 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…d2acbacked No | 28c | 89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed No | 12c | 88.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 85.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e8…2f82backed Yes | 74c | 84.03$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 65c | 83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 46c | 79.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 76.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.16 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 75.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd971…f3c1backed No | 22c | 75.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 69.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 28c | 67.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 60c | 66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 35c | 57.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 64c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 64c | 54.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe57c…b99bbacked Yes | 36c | 54.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +170.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 54.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 65c | 51.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 64c | 49.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 43c | 46.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 63c | 46.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 60c | 45.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a4…dbc9backed No | 24c | 44.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 24c | 44.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x598c…13b3backed Yes | 34c | 43.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.35per pick | 29cpaid | +154.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…7816backed Yes | 71c | 42.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 68cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 52c | 41.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 67c | 36.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 64c | 32.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 42c | 32.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 66c | 30.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…40dcbacked No | 59c | 28.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 27.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 62c | 24.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 63c | 24.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 63c | 23.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 69c | 23.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked No | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 65c | 21.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.