Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C or below on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3fc828b9202b84d5ab10912ea73bc43c7339f074107844afbaea3a2bca753c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3386…9257backed No | 36c | 474.92$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 4c | 342.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.98 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdee5…67bfbacked Yes | 46c | 322.21$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.99 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…9548backed No | 68c | 300.86$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.87 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 250.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 238.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.91 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 63c | 216.49$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.71 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 20c | 171.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.26 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 137.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed No | 52c | 134.61$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 78c | 121.72$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 10c | 111.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.46 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked Yes | 22c | 109.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.61 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 18c | 108.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.91 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed No | 77c | 102.95$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.07 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…2895backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 96.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 94.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 30c | 88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 17c | 80.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 53c | 58.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 70c | 54.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 79c | 46.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 48c | 37.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…59e0backed No | 52c | 36.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -7.2wins | -0.26per pick | 61cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6734…c3d2backed No | 38c | 35.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeed2…ad97backed Yes | 79c | 31.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 54c | 26.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked No | 40c | 25.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 50c | 24.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 53c | 21.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 68c | 20.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 79c | 14.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 73 | 84.9%62 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C or below on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.