Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x091c0f01338dbe52b6b86cd21ff8bac63521928e44ccca6ebac377d2759a9a09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 296.1$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.26 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 67c | 293.98$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.55 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 12c | 271.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 67c | 247.54$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.86 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 247.49$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 229$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.52 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 79c | 184.37$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 38c | 171.69$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked Yes | 78c | 170.9$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked No | 21c | 170.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 58c | 165$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.74 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 30c | 158.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.21 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 24c | 142.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 39c | 129.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 75c | 116.97$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 37c | 111.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 110$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 66c | 99.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.44 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e2…ec75backed No | 70c | 89.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 43c | 82.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 28c | 82.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.88 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 15c | 80.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 78.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 77.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 40c | 73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 56c | 69.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 67c | 68.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 35c | 64.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 29c | 64.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 18c | 63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 47c | 58.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 58.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 68c | 56.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 64c | 53.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 52.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 30c | 49.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 36c | 46.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 32c | 42.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6734…c3d2backed No | 32c | 41.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 37c | 41.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 80c | 40.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 39.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 62c | 38.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes | 32c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 33.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 50c | 32.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 66c | 31.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 68c | 29.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed No | 72c | 28.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 27.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 61c | 27.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 63c | 24.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 62c | 23.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…b1b2backed No | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…fae8backed Yes | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 68c | 15.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 70c | 14.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.