Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcac4ef24308d0e96f5691b2879bed0b5c710b2ea6cee246e09e8c57c6747b390
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 1c | 5,130$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 5,060$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb527…903dbacked Yes | 39c | 1,086$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.08 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5152backed Yes | 2c | 1,025$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…7b51backed No | 64c | 906.98$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.87 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 814.37$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 40c | 715.52$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.41 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed Yes | 32c | 606.68$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.92 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 23c | 542.7$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.7 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 65c | 506.69$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.84 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 26c | 502.87$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.75 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 39c | 487.11$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.79 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 16c | 464.12$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.93 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 22c | 430.15$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.97 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 32c | 390.28$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.19 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed No | 79c | 377.63$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.13 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 72c | 370.49$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.47 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 27c | 366.9$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 330.12$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.59 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 37c | 319.81$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.99 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 314.16$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 10c | 314.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.89 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 67c | 258.4$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.2 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 35c | 255.18$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.41 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 15c | 245.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.68 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…90d9backed Yes | 75c | 241.37$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x056d…c0c2backed No | 74c | 202.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 48c | 199.98$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 20c | 186.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 171.37$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…7b0dbacked Yes | 71c | 165.49$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.36 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…acf0backed No | 64c | 150.8$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed No | 43c | 146.79$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.65 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 70c | 143.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1690…9d6cbacked Yes | 28c | 138.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 38c | 125$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 56c | 124.41$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.41 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 117$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 37c | 114.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked No | 46c | 113.27$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 74c | 110.18$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 65c | 107.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…7b12backed Yes | 25c | 106.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 49c | 105.94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a15…aeabbacked Yes | 59c | 101.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 79c | 99.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 64c | 98.36$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 21c | 94.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 94.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 45c | 93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…e084backed No | 55c | 90.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked No | 77c | 84.36$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 22c | 81.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be4…56c3backed No | 49c | 80.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 51c | 79.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 77.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 16c | 77.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8033…0d2abacked No | 65c | 76.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3d…977abacked Yes | 67c | 75.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.40per pick | 62cpaid | -69%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 69c | 72.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a36…f270backed Yes | 20c | 72.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 23c | 71.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 20c | 71.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 46c | 69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 45c | 66.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 23c | 64.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 35c | 64.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de9…999cbacked No | 46c | 64.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 64.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 46c | 63.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed No | 70c | 62.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bf…0fb0backed Yes | 41c | 60.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a9…5165backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 18c | 59.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 19c | 59.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7d…06e3backed No | 64c | 57.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 71c | 55.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fec…bc11backed Yes | 26c | 55.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 76c | 54.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 23c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…4fd0backed No | 74c | 53.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -10.5wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked No | 75c | 53.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 71c | 50.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24d9…e3e6backed Yes | 61c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8442…3eddbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -43%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 59c | 49.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 63c | 49.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 23c | 48.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 26c | 48.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46bc…4894backed No | 66c | 48.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.