Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x384415057f69d4444def0a56114c775323c4b2b85c8f7c8dc25d0123f8a3f835
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ad7…0971backed No | 1c | 1,540$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 45c | 1,481$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.65 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 13c | 1,407$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.96 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 1c | 1,054$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x937b…fdb9backed No | 1c | 1,050$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 36c | 713.02$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.12 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…9c8cbacked No | 2c | 591.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 576.59$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.97 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 79c | 562.18$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.43 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 31c | 501.41$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.97 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 38c | 490$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.8 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 429$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 34c | 381.51$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.43 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 29c | 358.84$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 11c | 350.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.91 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 20c | 348.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.73 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb527…903dbacked Yes | 48c | 333.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.74 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…5844backed Yes | 32c | 317.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.15 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 54c | 297.62$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.24 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 59c | 285.21$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.26 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46bc…4894backed Yes | 80c | 277.1$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 64c | 275.26$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.38 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 55c | 242.26$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.65 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 30c | 240.36$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.19 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 28c | 230.63$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.43 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 230$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.27 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 216.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.13 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 33c | 207.63$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 40c | 199.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.97 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 199.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 192.77$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 42c | 177.64$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.65 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 23c | 167.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 31c | 164.19$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.51 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 15c | 162.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.08 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 33c | 150.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 149.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.58 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 145.77$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.24 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 79c | 137$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 19c | 136.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d9…e3e6backed Yes | 42c | 133$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac5…852cbacked Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 42c | 130$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8f…1181backed Yes | 22c | 127.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.16 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1690…9d6cbacked Yes | 30c | 126.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 79c | 126.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 37c | 126.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.33 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 37c | 121.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 119$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.48 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 118.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 32c | 106.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…7b12backed Yes | 27c | 105.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.9 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 65c | 101$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a36…f270backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8442…3eddbacked Yes | 27c | 98.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.63 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -43%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 30c | 94.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 89.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.03 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 23c | 88.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.69 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 53c | 84.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed Yes | 35c | 83.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 16c | 76.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2de9…999cbacked No | 39c | 73.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 19c | 72.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 72.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 61c | 70.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 42c | 70.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked No | 68c | 69.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 16c | 69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…a606backed No | 24c | 68.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 29c | 67.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 65.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a9…5165backed Yes | 31c | 65.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 18c | 65.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x89da…b5f2backed Yes | 69c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 67c | 63.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed No | 78c | 63.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 24c | 59.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 54c | 58.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 69c | 58.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…4fd0backed No | 70c | 57.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -10.5wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 72c | 55.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…7421backed No | 28c | 54.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 41c | 50.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 24c | 49.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 45.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 44.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 26c | 42.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 74c | 42.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 24c | 41.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 41.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.