Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f90c07e8949efc04b83afa0bf5e2d4533b50d1fe8a6a784f4e9db2ee8413a10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 10,588$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 1c | 2,045$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 17c | 1,805$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.34 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 1c | 1,418$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed Yes | 13c | 1,194$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.46 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 25c | 694.74$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.83 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 3c | 534.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 2c | 507.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 30c | 426.61$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.97 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 4c | 407.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 6c | 389.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…2533backed Yes | 28c | 385.43$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.78 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed Yes | 5c | 371.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 4c | 366.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 7c | 343.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…acf0backed Yes | 30c | 299.77$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.59 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 9c | 294.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 284.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed No | 79c | 268.35$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.87 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 259.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 72c | 210.9$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 210.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 76c | 206.08$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.06 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 201.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 29c | 200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 27c | 190.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed No | 70c | 162.48$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 30c | 160.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 105.06$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 35c | 93.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xccc4…77cabacked Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 89.62$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…7b0dbacked Yes | 41c | 72.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 72.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 28c | 60.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…60bebacked Yes | 32c | 47.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 44.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9702…9453backed No | 80c | 42.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…ff17backed Yes | 33c | 40.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 29c | 39.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…5dadbacked Yes | 35c | 36.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 34.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 67c | 32.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 48c | 28.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 36c | 28.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 73c | 18.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 77c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.