Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc16c0bdd3e99d62588eaf6c7e321d269b89ab736233ec164a3d5442f06669c81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb527…903dbacked Yes | 1c | 10,508$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.25 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 27c | 1,491$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.75 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed Yes | 26c | 1,304$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.44 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 1,105$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 4c | 805.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 8c | 576.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2695…60f8backed No | 72c | 563.87$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 5c | 527.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5a…bc49backed No | 72c | 476.14$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.64 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 414.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 411.39$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.27 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 389.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 8c | 374.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 13c | 365$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 11c | 347.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed Yes | 7c | 320.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 11c | 317.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 8c | 288.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 11c | 286.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 13c | 255.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 69c | 254.11$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.57 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 9c | 235.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 10c | 228.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 13c | 217.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed No | 77c | 212.01$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 21c | 208.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 206.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 7c | 196.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 77c | 174.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 156.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…cf59backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 8c | 147.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 77c | 145.33$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 68c | 135.46$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 10c | 131.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedeb…3553backed Yes | 27c | 129.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 10c | 117.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 13c | 113.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 105.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…7b0dbacked Yes | 39c | 103.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 27c | 102.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked Yes | 16c | 100.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 15c | 99.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 22c | 95.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 19c | 77.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 77.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…2f45backed No | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 29c | 68.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 67.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 32c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 22c | 60.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…0805backed Yes | 22c | 50.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fdf…09b6backed Yes | 43c | 48.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 30c | 46.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7d…9e9ebacked Yes | 67c | 44.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…ed5bbacked Yes | 26c | 42.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2de9…999cbacked No | 60c | 40.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked No | 76c | 36.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 37c | 33.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 65c | 33.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 37c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 77c | 31.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf7…ebeabacked No | 79c | 30.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 40c | 28.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 78c | 28.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 23.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2f…f102backed No | 76c | 18.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc3…b159backed No | 74c | 16.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.