Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a8551a248380a8995b5080486753d837235ad5985ed9860c886248f723decb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 34c | 478.25$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.26 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked Yes | 64c | 445.73$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.76 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 7c | 432.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 1,576 | 16.2%255 W · 1,321 L | +21.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 15c | 427.95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 915 | 29.3%268 W · 647 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 340.98$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.77 | 2,708 | 47.5%1,287 W · 1,421 L | +48.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 45c | 331.17$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.17 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 308.59$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 307.78$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.66 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 294.42$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 4,157 | 56.7%2,356 W · 1,801 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed No | 41c | 254.4$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.49 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed7b…7b92backed No | 57c | 232.12$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 50c | 220.55$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.83 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 5c | 216.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1,016 | 51.5%523 W · 493 L | +108.2wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…9d77backed No | 58c | 214.69$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.18 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 40c | 208.1$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.53 | 3,050 | 40.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L | -121.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…9a31backed No | 54c | 199.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked No | 52c | 188.8$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 21c | 185$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 5,503 | 56.1%3,086 W · 2,417 L | -121.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 36c | 166.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 62c | 158.39$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.95 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 42c | 158$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 751 | 38.2%287 W · 464 L | +18.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 146$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 2,764 | 29.7%820 W · 1,944 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 40c | 126.15$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.63 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 47c | 102.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 56c | 100.14$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf07a…060bbacked Yes | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 52c | 96.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 48c | 95.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed No | 56c | 87.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 24c | 84.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 39c | 83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 4,636 | 58.3%2,701 W · 1,935 L | -115.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…7376backed Yes | 43c | 81.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 49c | 80.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 76.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 6,203 | 49.2%3,054 W · 3,149 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 53c | 68.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 470 | 47.2%222 W · 248 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 67c | 65.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…52c4backed No | 55c | 62.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 51c | 61.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,339 | 34.1%456 W · 883 L | +45.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 59.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 10,010 | 45.9%4,590 W · 5,420 L | -314.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 53c | 56.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 53c | 56.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 56c | 53.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 56c | 53.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 53c | 52.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 439 | 51%224 W · 215 L | +23.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 38c | 51.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 625 | 39.7%248 W · 377 L | +28.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 55c | 50.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d75…4f96backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,244 | 16.7%208 W · 1,036 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,036 | 31.3%951 W · 2,085 L | +40.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 45c | 48.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 1,027 | 24.9%256 W · 771 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x609d…daccbacked Yes | 42c | 47.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 41c | 46.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 41c | 46.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 482 | 40.2%194 W · 288 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 44c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 46c | 43.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…a481backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 60c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…5678backed Yes | 48c | 41.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20e7…84a7backed No | 32c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 64c | 40.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 13,028 | 20.7%2,692 W · 10,336 L | -2,701.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 41c | 40.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 218 | 36.2%79 W · 139 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 59c | 40.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 2,357 | 58.7%1,384 W · 973 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 38.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2baa…c5bdbacked No | 56c | 38.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…0bfbbacked No | 30c | 37.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 3,137 | 61.8%1,939 W · 1,198 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 60c | 33.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…477dbacked Yes | 35c | 32.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c15…c2bfbacked No | 35c | 31.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 45c | 31.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 2,628 | 54%1,419 W · 1,209 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 44c | 31.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 30.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…7f0fbacked Yes | 49c | 30.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 47c | 30.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 57c | 30.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 56c | 30.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,023 | 40.1%410 W · 613 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,030 | 47.3%1,907 W · 2,123 L | +70.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…0d4cbacked No | 52c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 35c | 29.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6734…c3d2backed No | 54c | 29.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 43c | 29.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 668 | 34.3%229 W · 439 L | +37.7wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 42c | 28.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac44…f420backed Yes | 43c | 27.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8850…d68dbacked No | 55c | 26.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bd24backed Yes | 75c | 26.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 61c | 25.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…9501backed Yes | 43c | 25.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…ae97backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.