Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x350942eaa74a2b1e10a3d22ec3803d7d7e0822235b8b291d51bdb160d81f03ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 23c | 414.85$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.81 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 17c | 330.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…9d77backed No | 68c | 254.58$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.79 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 26c | 245.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0061…6e0fbacked No | 75c | 234.03$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 229.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked Yes | 35c | 211.59$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.05 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 13c | 205.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 21c | 199.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 23c | 172.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 71c | 157$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 20c | 153.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 29c | 149.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 146.12$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 27c | 145.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 140.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 133.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc6…43f0backed No | 78c | 127.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 71c | 124.08$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 25c | 115.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 66c | 109.12$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 108.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 25c | 107.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…0511backed Yes | 33c | 104.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 26c | 100.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 26c | 100.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed No | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 23c | 94.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 92.12$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…76efbacked Yes | 34c | 90.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 28c | 87.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 30c | 86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 84.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23af…e576backed Yes | 19c | 84.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 67c | 78.42$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed No | 69c | 76.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 74.65$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 34c | 72.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 69c | 71.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 68.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 73c | 68.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 74c | 66.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…5678backed Yes | 31c | 64.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 70c | 64.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 33c | 61.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 65c | 60.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 80c | 55.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 63c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 52.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 76c | 51.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed No | 59c | 50.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 66c | 50.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 75c | 50.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3903…0f92backed No | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf07a…060bbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa796…03bcbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 20c | 49.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 32c | 49.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 33c | 49.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 66c | 48.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…477dbacked Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 77c | 44.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 35c | 40.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…cc2dbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 76c | 39.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 33c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 77c | 34.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…7852backed Yes | 41c | 32.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 69c | 32.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd912…32a2backed No | 79c | 30.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c15…c2bfbacked No | 72c | 29.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 72c | 29.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 27.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 77c | 27.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 26.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 78c | 25.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1183…f754backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd3…5b9abacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 79c | 23.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 71c | 23.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 76c | 22.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325e…5308backed No | 71c | 21.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 78c | 20.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed No | 70c | 20.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 80c | 20.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed No | 76c | 19.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.