Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7903f2b113d23830d63f7b499adca5f45f18a67cc3498fb28c04bbd1192b0ae8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 867.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…357cbacked Yes | 3c | 811.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 12c | 666.9$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.51 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 12c | 513.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.76 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 20c | 402.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.54 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 19c | 313.91$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 308.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 19c | 305.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 290.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked No | 79c | 246.15$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 244.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 16c | 240$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 7c | 216.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed Yes | 29c | 207.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 80c | 200.76$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 8c | 189.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 27c | 182$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 17c | 178.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 9c | 164.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 13c | 141.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 71c | 138.54$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb19…08febacked No | 80c | 136.8$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 26c | 135.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 72c | 131.59$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 129.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 27c | 126.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 78c | 125.8$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 123.29$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 18c | 120.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 73c | 120$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 12c | 117.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 71c | 109.77$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda8…7795backed Yes | 14c | 107.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…517ebacked No | 72c | 103.87$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 30c | 101.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 19c | 100.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 16c | 98.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 30c | 97.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed No | 72c | 88.14$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73c2…4261backed Yes | 20c | 82.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 23c | 80.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 13c | 77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0745…5673backed Yes | 30c | 65.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 15c | 65.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…eaaebacked Yes | 23c | 64.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 79c | 56.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 56.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1a…9d0abacked No | 71c | 55.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1c…dc61backed Yes | 22c | 52.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 27c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 22c | 47.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 26c | 46.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 28c | 46.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 24c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 45.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 26c | 45.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 78c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…3668backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 78cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 77c | 38.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 32.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 72c | 27.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 74c | 27.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa223…0894backed No | 79c | 18.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 70c | 18.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2baa…c5bdbacked No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 69c | 17.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 75c | 15.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 71c | 14.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.