Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x409baeeb46e31693c25ef8ed99c7a61efe79cdf77e92938fd0af01747c7be54b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,455 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9410…3c5abacked Yes | 2c | 2,455$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 6c | 1,999$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.53 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,766$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.44 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed Yes | 9c | 1,237$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.42 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,223$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.79 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,165$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.45 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 8c | 1,003$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.7 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 13c | 802.59$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 9c | 802.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.65 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 748.68$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…11aabacked Yes | 10c | 531.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 8c | 438.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f04…242bbacked Yes | 6c | 401.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 369.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 23c | 328.81$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42c0…b200backed Yes | 9c | 317.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 314.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e5…931abacked Yes | 14c | 311.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce4…58c5backed Yes | 33c | 306.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 9c | 274.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 18c | 270.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…d079backed Yes | 13c | 266.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 7c | 263.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 26c | 260.43$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed No | 78c | 257.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 77c | 254.33$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.42 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 17c | 234.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 78c | 221.15$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 11c | 204.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…cf14backed Yes | 26c | 203.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 13c | 200.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…ebc6backed Yes | 10c | 199.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…bfd5backed Yes | 21c | 198.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 11c | 198$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…5dcdbacked Yes | 18c | 194.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb0…4397backed Yes | 10c | 191.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 19c | 185$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 13c | 174$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed Yes | 16c | 172.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aae…d51dbacked Yes | 11c | 168.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +55%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ce…307dbacked Yes | 32c | 158.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…e3f0backed Yes | 11c | 157.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…1010backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf368…cfb1backed Yes | 16c | 147.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…7a32backed Yes | 14c | 139.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 11c | 131.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed Yes | 11c | 131$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf94…f69dbacked Yes | 30c | 130.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 122.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4eba…eb58backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1599…fbe3backed Yes | 16c | 117.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa143…c081backed Yes | 16c | 117$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa428…40c6backed No | 63c | 115.61$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e3…d600backed Yes | 16c | 113$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 74c | 112$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…4916backed Yes | 14c | 109.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 19c | 105.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 23c | 104.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ea…b603backed Yes | 12c | 102.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa31c…bdf7backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdc…e278backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4f94backed Yes | 12c | 99.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…84adbacked Yes | 16c | 96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 95.43$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 14c | 95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 14c | 93.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fef…952bbacked Yes | 27c | 92.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b5…2aeebacked Yes | 16c | 92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e37…b4d5backed Yes | 16c | 92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 83.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4513…5a38backed Yes | 17c | 82.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes | 16c | 74.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 31c | 68.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…cd02backed Yes | 17c | 64.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb1…d05dbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1de1…7cf6backed Yes | 19c | 52.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…d52dbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 23c | 45.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 25.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f7…7ea9backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2c…0746backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…759abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 75c | 18.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 73c | 17.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 79c | 13.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 53°F or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 72°F or higher on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.