Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x700fa9d2e990e3e6191d94aba5c8d70b7efc382ad63f80c1cb660a67914db498
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,467 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 3,416$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.62 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 16c | 2,374$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.01 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,539$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.5 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 79c | 1,188$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.65 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 28c | 739.31$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.94 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 730.96$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81b4…45f1backed Yes | 16c | 720.4$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…3c5abacked Yes | 7c | 714.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 29c | 586.08$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.75 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…fdf7backed Yes | 18c | 511.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 19c | 491.44$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.53 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 17c | 449.46$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 21c | 429.39$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 18c | 410.54$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.27 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 29c | 408.1$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.36 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 13c | 402.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 386.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.36 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 370.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 365.61$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.32 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 352.49$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes | 17c | 337.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 16c | 324.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 308.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 305.86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.56 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 20c | 274.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 22c | 260.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 7c | 256$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbce4…58c5backed Yes | 40c | 251.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 232.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 22c | 231.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 230.08$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 219.68$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 24c | 218.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…cf14backed Yes | 33c | 211.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.69 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 30c | 209.27$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 205.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…bfd5backed Yes | 27c | 203.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 23c | 200.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 29c | 199.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 25c | 198$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…5dcdbacked Yes | 34c | 195.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 190.26$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 17c | 178.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 30c | 173.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 26c | 162.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…ebc6backed Yes | 25c | 157.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 13c | 152$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 76c | 143.12$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 76c | 140$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…8f52backed Yes | 17c | 140$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb65…cf36backed Yes | 14c | 139.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…a4c1backed Yes | 15c | 137.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfd…222abacked Yes | 16c | 131.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…e43ebacked Yes | 30c | 130$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1599…fbe3backed Yes | 14c | 127.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…7a32backed Yes | 24c | 127.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 23c | 121.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 25c | 120.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…e3f0backed Yes | 30c | 118.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 118.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1b97…1e7dbacked Yes | 28c | 115$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 114.62$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes | 13c | 109.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9e6dbacked Yes | 19c | 107.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f22…56dbbacked Yes | 28c | 101.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 19c | 101.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…b689backed Yes | 25c | 98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff2…9070backed Yes | 37c | 95.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 94.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 23c | 89.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 22c | 86.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fef…952bbacked Yes | 46c | 85.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7908…4f35backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 18c | 81.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 72c | 80.53$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfca3…93eabacked No | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -70%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c7…bc56backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 34c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 78.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…0201backed Yes | 26c | 78.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 23c | 75.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4f94backed Yes | 14c | 73.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 73c | 72.63$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked Yes | 27c | 72.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd642…8037backed No | 74c | 64.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 37c | 64.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e26…74febacked No | 72c | 64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…19a7backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d1…ac93backed Yes | 32c | 60.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 22c | 60.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed Yes | 19c | 59.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5aae…d51dbacked Yes | 18c | 58.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +55%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed No | 69c | 57.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 77c | 54.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 53°F or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 72°F or higher on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.