TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,467

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,467 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes13c3,416$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.622,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes16c2,374$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.014,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes11c1,539$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.535018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed No79c1,188$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.6532157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes28c739.31$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.9473927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c730.96$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.5517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x81b4…45f1backed Yes16c720.4$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9410…3c5abacked Yes7c714.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2db…2263backed Yes29c586.08$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.7511126.1%29 W · 82 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc0f8…fdf7backed Yes18c511.99$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes19c491.44$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5334219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes17c449.46$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2460523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x080a…6030backed Yes21c429.39$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.986114.8%9 W · 52 L-8.4wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-48.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes18c410.54$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2733726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes29c408.1$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.361,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes13c402.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4585330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes17c386.89$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.361,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes21c370.99$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.026,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No73c365.61$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.324,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No78c352.49$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.215,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes17c337.39$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.484337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes16c324.02$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.312347.3%17 W · 217 L+0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes18c308.95$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.132,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes20c305.86$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.562,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes20c274.71$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.611,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes22c260.44$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0377428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes7c256$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9212235.2%43 W · 79 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce4…58c5backed Yes40c251.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-75.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes24c232.4$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes22c231.16$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No75c230.08$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No75c219.68$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.863,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a04…b254backed Yes24c218.77$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1259818.4%110 W · 488 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfae3…cf14backed Yes33c211.18$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.691747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-33.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes30c209.27$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8848331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes18c205.71$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.942,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8713…bfd5backed Yes27c203.65$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565058%29 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe44…af27backed Yes23c200.41$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8917433.9%59 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Yes29c199.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585226.9%14 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes25c198$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.971,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x50ec…5dcdbacked Yes34c195.02$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No78c190.26$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.612,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc448…085ebacked Yes17c178.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1121919.6%43 W · 176 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes30c173.65$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7822934.1%78 W · 151 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes26c162.37$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.791,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e6c…ebc6backed Yes25c157.77$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc941…a0e8backed Yes13c152$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7620838%79 W · 129 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No76c143.12$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.661,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7966…b251backed No76c140$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.714359.4%85 W · 58 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b6a…8f52backed Yes17c140$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.83956.4%22 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb65…cf36backed Yes14c139.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.531118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d50…a4c1backed Yes15c137.93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.811560%9 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+55.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5dfd…222abacked Yes16c131.91$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28d9…e43ebacked Yes30c130$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1599…fbe3backed Yes14c127.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+122.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa917…7a32backed Yes24c127.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-55.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76a2…6651backed Yes23c121.24$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2714637.7%55 W · 91 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1be…6471backed Yes25c120.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308861.4%54 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98dc…e3f0backed Yes30c118.37$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353050%15 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes14c118.1$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.647,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1b97…1e7dbacked Yes28c115$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No76c114.62$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.059,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc018…b251backed Yes10c110$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1111138.7%43 W · 68 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+34.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes13c109.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea39…9e6dbacked Yes19c107.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f22…56dbbacked Yes28c101.91$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.53333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes19c101.4$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0956721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x79b9…7d93backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208431%26 W · 58 L+0.3wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2527648.6%134 W · 142 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.881,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2421440.2%86 W · 128 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5579…b689backed Yes25c98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff2…9070backed Yes37c95.4$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.99944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No69c94.98$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.598,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes23c89.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.91,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbad3…7715backed Yes22c86.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.745633.9%19 W · 37 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+36.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fef…952bbacked Yes46c85.65$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7908…4f35backed Yes30c83.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25339.1%3 W · 30 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-3.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes18c81.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.641,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdfb…f641backed No72c80.53$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.879164.8%59 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfca3…93eabacked No67c80$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.41816.7%3 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-70%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7c7…bc56backed Yes33c80$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4170%0 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7cde…476ebacked Yes34c80$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5416336.2%59 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes37c78.84$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.854,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…0201backed Yes26c78.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-51.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes23c75.31$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0259125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4f94backed Yes14c73.24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.181020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-42.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No73c72.63$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.881,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x17f2…adcabacked Yes27c72.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4611163.1%70 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes21c70$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.718842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd642…8037backed No74c64.97$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.152100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6526…9c80backed Yes37c64.34$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2412337.4%46 W · 77 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e26…74febacked No72c64$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b60…19a7backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26d1…ac93backed Yes32c60.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes22c60.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.381,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7aea…2ab8backed Yes19c59.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.245431.5%17 W · 37 L-7.1wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-43.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5aae…d51dbacked Yes18c58.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.71425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+55%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbc0f…18b4backed No69c57.01$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.672832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.7wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-41.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No77c54.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8554966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.