Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bd3639d046fbe7d055f6fac3f54e977bf90850d6cc5a87fd06cebdb32f9c10a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,683 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 43c | 3,906$1,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,215.63 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdf94…f69dbacked No | 16c | 3,802$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.02 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 42c | 3,465$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,023.96 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 17c | 3,449$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,864.1 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 9c | 2,772$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,533.84 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 14c | 2,156$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,847.71 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 54c | 1,668$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.26 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 9c | 1,133$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.64 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 41c | 1,108$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.11 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 9c | 1,016$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.3 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 9c | 890.04$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 35c | 867.56$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.99 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 16c | 797.84$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.31 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 2c | 731.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91e…4e59backed No | 3c | 678.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 40c | 633.35$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.78 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 624.16$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 24c | 616$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.21 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 614.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 574.43$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.29 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 565.96$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.42 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…e3f0backed Yes | 22c | 552.08$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.53 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e8b7backed Yes | 24c | 538.78$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.85 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 35c | 516.39$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.12 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 47c | 509.86$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.98 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed No | 59c | 502.01$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.12 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 34c | 468.84$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.86 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d78…51c9backed Yes | 41c | 449.31$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e6…4cdbbacked Yes | 9c | 439.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.75 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 16c | 430.7$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.93 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 429.81$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…c641backed Yes | 19c | 419.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.58 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 8c | 409.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 376$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 19c | 336.24$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.74 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 11c | 333.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.72 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 5c | 323.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 42c | 302.44$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.44 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 35c | 276.33$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.33 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…11aabacked Yes | 28c | 275.44$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.29 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 77c | 272.56$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.66 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 256.18$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.96 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 69c | 236.52$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 11c | 234.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.63 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 44c | 232$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.04 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 42c | 230.2$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.36 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc89…095cbacked Yes | 23c | 227$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.18 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 74c | 219.33$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.34 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 10c | 209.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.99 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…bfd5backed Yes | 27c | 202.12$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.12 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 37c | 200$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.45 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 15c | 198$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.73 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 51c | 196.03$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.18 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff2…9070backed Yes | 28c | 195.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 15c | 193.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.46 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 55c | 189.09$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.23 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 18c | 184.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.75 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 10c | 175.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.29 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 19c | 160$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.4 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 12c | 150$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.74 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 145.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 24c | 142.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.13 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91c2…732abacked Yes | 12c | 137.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 9c | 137.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.7 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b5…1bfebacked No | 8c | 135.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 27c | 135.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.91 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 80c | 134.37$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 20c | 133.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.15 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 49c | 132.97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 124.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.98 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f9…3fa1backed Yes | 12c | 122.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 20cpaid | +255.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 25c | 120.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.18 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 23c | 117.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.05 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 16c | 116.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.3 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x088e…8827backed No | 64c | 110.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 14c | 107.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.55 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 63c | 107.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 17c | 106.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.85 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 11c | 106$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 78c | 105.4$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.97 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 12c | 103.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.91 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc89b…f512backed Yes | 28c | 103$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 24c | 101.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.79 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf2…6a36backed Yes | 41c | 101$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…b63fbacked Yes | 13c | 99.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.48 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2018…640abacked Yes | 30c | 98.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 21c | 96.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.27 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 14c | 95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 31c | 94.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.77 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…3c5abacked No | 41c | 91.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 27c | 91.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.76 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Yes | 28c | 90.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 12c | 89.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.14 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…963abacked Yes | 17c | 86.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 76c | 85.88$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 53°F or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 72°F or higher on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.