Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30b830d677dafca818ed50eed29651128d5a57da2e45b48519ac0958c879ff13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,686 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 2,547$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.27 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,437$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 2c | 2,097$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 1,407$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 9c | 1,393$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.95 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 8c | 1,206$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.66 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,064$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e5…931abacked Yes | 8c | 747.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce4…58c5backed Yes | 7c | 737.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 13c | 642$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.19 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 14c | 592.5$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.76 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…11aabacked Yes | 4c | 576.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 5c | 391.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 4c | 356$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 355.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed Yes | 10c | 352.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 5c | 335.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 17c | 317.49$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eba…eb58backed Yes | 10c | 220.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 8c | 220.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 7c | 209.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 12c | 204.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34a…6e39backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 6c | 198$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…7a32backed Yes | 8c | 190.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 10c | 182.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 7c | 164.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 9c | 152.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed Yes | 8c | 149.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 20c | 130.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…88c4backed Yes | 16c | 124.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 11c | 122$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 9c | 119.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad02…d5e5backed Yes | 15c | 115$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 14c | 111.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea9…20c0backed Yes | 11c | 98.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…84afbacked Yes | 11c | 94.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 13c | 87.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4d…cd27backed Yes | 15c | 86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6151…c962backed Yes | 17c | 86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b7…766abacked Yes | 20c | 50.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1de1…7cf6backed Yes | 21c | 48.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 79c | 47.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 53°F or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 72°F or higher on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.