Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6a2a7080c1459055b1efe148ff2b57f223da2d6e13571fcd24ec2dacb03d0d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,493 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 17c | 2,712$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e6…4cdbbacked Yes | 22c | 1,351$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.66 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 1,292$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.18 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 15c | 1,272$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.02 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd91e…4e59backed Yes | 2c | 966.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 18c | 958.43$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.5 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 15c | 796.82$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.69 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 28c | 500.24$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.11 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 492.24$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 6c | 463.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 20c | 432.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.32 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…e3f0backed Yes | 48c | 409.66$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.15 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 37c | 361.06$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.92 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 358.85$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 344.14$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 10c | 342.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 14c | 337.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 6c | 279.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 267.02$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 256.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 11c | 252.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 22c | 252.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 16c | 250.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…cf14backed Yes | 18c | 230.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 46c | 227.03$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.45 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 222.38$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.39 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 35c | 217.72$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.18 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 23c | 215.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 214.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 39c | 208.35$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 21c | 204.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf2…0b9abacked Yes | 49c | 202.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 12c | 201.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 18c | 200.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 27c | 198$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…bfd5backed Yes | 18c | 196.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…5dcdbacked Yes | 31c | 195.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 21c | 187.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 54c | 185.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 184.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 19c | 183.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 166.26$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 14c | 160$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 75c | 155.4$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 145.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 35c | 142.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 25c | 140.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 19c | 136.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 133.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 125.92$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…71b3backed Yes | 38c | 111.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 33c | 109.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 33c | 102.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cb…d64bbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf585…aae1backed Yes | 38c | 96.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 20c | 93.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 71c | 88.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55a4…94c1backed Yes | 20c | 87.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 74c | 85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 42c | 81.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 36c | 81.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 19c | 80.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 79.76$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 27c | 79.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4727…405dbacked Yes | 25c | 78.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 36c | 72.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Yes | 69c | 72.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 23c | 69.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…0ba8backed No | 74c | 67.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 26c | 62.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked No | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 75c | 61.72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 19c | 60.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 69c | 57.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91c2…732abacked Yes | 22c | 56.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…d3b7backed No | 69c | 56.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 76c | 55.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 36c | 55.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed No | 77c | 54.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd332…f1d9backed Yes | 19c | 53.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 70c | 50.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 30c | 50.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…562cbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3064…641abacked Yes | 60c | 49.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba7…2fdbbacked No | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f1…6aa4backed No | 74c | 46.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 53°F or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 72°F or higher on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.