Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x200fe9901b578b5f5e30765216d44c4c4e744e32661b178cfb7577719d329923
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,918 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 4c | 11,019$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.92 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,159$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.41 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 15c | 2,610$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.79 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 3c | 2,303$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 6c | 2,302$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.8 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 2c | 2,025$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 5c | 1,288$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,116$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,035$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked Yes | 3c | 911.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 3c | 854.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 15c | 813.14$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.63 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e8b7backed Yes | 2c | 811.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 6c | 621.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 621.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 8c | 585.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 542.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 12c | 529.78$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 3c | 512.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 4c | 481.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 11c | 396.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d78…51c9backed Yes | 14c | 324.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 4c | 308.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 4c | 308.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 246.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 12c | 228.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 10c | 216.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 5c | 213.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3f…fa0dbacked Yes | 9c | 210.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 9c | 198$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bd…fb6cbacked Yes | 11c | 167.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…1907backed Yes | 8c | 166.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 73 | 9.6%7 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 16c | 158.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3efd…b982backed Yes | 10c | 155.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…c641backed Yes | 11c | 140$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…e3f0backed Yes | 37c | 136.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 131.37$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 20c | 117.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 10c | 97.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8680…a628backed No | 74c | 91.29$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 12c | 81.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 15c | 66.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 24c | 62.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked No | 74c | 60.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 72c | 51.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb94e…e6e5backed No | 72c | 51.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…a4c1backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4540…dc3abacked Yes | 38c | 48.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1014…b701backed Yes | 35c | 43.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 69c | 40.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed No | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e99…9584backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 77c | 23.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed No | 74c | 20.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…0a2abacked No | 79c | 15.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 68c | 15.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 53°F or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 72°F or higher on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.