Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 53°F or below on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaae908989f25e34d9b6c5605f239f4009bf10be1526a98a8160af42237397ab0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,909 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 2c | 9,365$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.5 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32b7…b36ebacked Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 7cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 11c | 2,313$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.32 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 12c | 2,036$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.58 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 3c | 1,636$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 623 | 23.8%148 W · 475 L | -21.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…98c3backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 22cpaid | +297.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 4c | 999.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,299 | 17.8%409 W · 1,890 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 11c | 900.03$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.19 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 2c | 844.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 13c | 756.39$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.71 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 5c | 708.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 701.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 1,731 | 18%311 W · 1,420 L | +73.6wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 647.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 2,839 | 11.2%317 W · 2,522 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 4c | 635.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 620.46$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.53 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 8c | 551.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 481.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…b1bfbacked Yes | 11c | 441.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 17c | 440.31$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.41 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 2c | 433.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…11aabacked Yes | 5c | 427.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 13c | 427.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 1,847 | 27.6%509 W · 1,338 L | +24.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed Yes | 3c | 377.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ea…b603backed Yes | 11c | 350$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 12c | 343.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 5c | 306.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 430 | 45.6%196 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 11c | 295.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked Yes | 12c | 269.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked Yes | 6c | 265.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 15c | 245$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 10c | 241.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 13c | 234.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 7c | 212.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…c641backed Yes | 7c | 200.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff2…9070backed Yes | 10c | 154.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 12c | 152.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 11c | 144.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 8c | 143.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 16c | 117.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes | 22c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 108.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 18c | 106.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 255 | 58.4%149 W · 106 L | +23.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…201bbacked Yes | 19c | 105.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3926…c1b2backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…8af3backed No | 78c | 64.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa258…6182backed Yes | 25c | 55.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf451…86f9backed No | 77c | 51.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 76c | 40.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86cc…f46ebacked No | 77c | 35.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…c472backed No | 77c | 35.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 74c | 27.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8c…d073backed No | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 53°F or below on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 72°F or higher on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.