Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or higher on May 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x609cdc8e20489b4c9f3bd10743abf6e136773de4a13732cac7eee0911cdfb251
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 23c | 726.46$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 77c | 526.75$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.14 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 28c | 369.6$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.83 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 73c | 260.59$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 28c | 249.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 75c | 174.32$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 120.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 21c | 115$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 72c | 112.46$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 79c | 99.88$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 14c | 91.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 26c | 67.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x145d…98edbacked Yes | 73c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 70c | 46.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed No | 24c | 43.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 80c | 41.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40de…66bdbacked Yes | 71c | 39.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 76c | 34.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked Yes | 72c | 33.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e1…77debacked Yes | 76c | 31.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…2bcebacked No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed Yes | 72c | 29.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 61c | 24.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…b3b8backed Yes | 74c | 22.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed Yes | 72c | 20.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99b…f212backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 80c | 18.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf368…cfb1backed Yes | 71c | 16.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 72c | 16.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked Yes | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 75c | 15.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…94b8backed Yes | 71c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…d73bbacked Yes | 78c | 14.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed Yes | 74c | 14.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or higher on May 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on May 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.