Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60646c3da3f1db8d59a948a56799e29abe9f854aca8185a1f05299bc8335ff9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 50c | 318$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.88 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 297.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e8…2f82backed Yes | 54c | 184.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 49c | 174.37$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked Yes | 62c | 160.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 52c | 158$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.57 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 46c | 136.83$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 56c | 116.86$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f6…c76cbacked No | 37c | 104$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +65%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 67c | 71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…fbbabacked No | 62c | 68.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 43c | 66.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf368…cfb1backed Yes | 48c | 63.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 55c | 59.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 53c | 52.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…b2f0backed No | 58c | 50.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 46.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 45c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 61c | 39.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 69c | 36.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 45c | 35.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked No | 44c | 32.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 51c | 28.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…cad8backed No | 67c | 26.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 40c | 25.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked Yes | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 24.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 44c | 23.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 53c | 21.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.