Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcd3d2d9cfb7c0408ebef2b11e082534817edb911320a41c3d9eb4be273c724f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 74c | 620.46$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.08 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 22c | 428.04$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.04 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 77c | 364.09$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.73 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 15c | 265.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 24c | 229.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.94 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 206.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 28c | 191.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 162.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 158.32$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 70c | 157.24$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 34c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcb…bf61backed No | 65c | 139$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 138.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 11c | 132.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 27c | 129.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 14c | 126.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 109.69$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 31c | 109.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 108.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 11c | 106.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 22c | 104.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 35c | 99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 25c | 82.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…8f04backed Yes | 20c | 78.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 17c | 75.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 17c | 71.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 29c | 69.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 62.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 61.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 21c | 61.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 54.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 53.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 75c | 53.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…bf91backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d0…1515backed No | 74c | 45.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…cf5cbacked No | 78c | 38.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 67c | 33.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked No | 75c | 32.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 75c | 27.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 74c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…b651backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 74c | 24.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked No | 77c | 20.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf368…cfb1backed No | 75c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 78c | 17.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34e…bb55backed No | 78c | 12.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 88°F or higher on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.