TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,447
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,270

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,447 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xab36…38dabacked No69c715.62$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.783745.9%17 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes49c499.89$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.9989544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes21c416.21$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.658,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes77c327.37$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.351,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c256.21$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.0417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No35c213.02$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.374,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa5c…a240backed Yes47c182.41$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.719552.8%103 W · 92 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x726e…aafbbacked Yes46c182.41$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.2223269%160 W · 72 L+23.7wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+27.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3069…0cf2backed Yes47c182.41$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.73855.3%21 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes11c140.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.189,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No79c133.66$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9797570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No60c114$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.223,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No50c112.89$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xedba…002dbacked No77c110.26$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.719679.2%76 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked No53c101.49$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1637056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes51c100.11$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.535,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e0f…9a05backed No12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220631.1%64 W · 142 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No57c93$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.785,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes23c89.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.061,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No44c88.84$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9461752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes24c83.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.322,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb619…91e2backed No69c81.32$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.964746.8%22 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No76c81.01$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.61,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No69c80$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.291,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No80c79.49$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.523,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No75c78.04$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5965…33b5backed No68c76.77$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523161.3%19 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes40c75.8$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.272,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes63c74.88$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.992,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No78c72$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.512,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No80c71.92$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5342160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No80c71.05$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.598571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No32c68$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.875,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes26c67$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.481,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes39c65.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.372,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed Yes72c64.36$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0489661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes24c62.49$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.492,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes25c60$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4524434.4%84 W · 160 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes54c59$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4212235.2%43 W · 79 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d65…2d2bbacked Yes26c57.62$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.643548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes30c54$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8566758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes38c52.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.520037%74 W · 126 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba7…3d88backed No72c52$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4447866.5%318 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98e9…bf91backed Yes26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.95536.4%20 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No48c49.36$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.652,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes25c49.27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0442148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes27c49.18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7948149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No22c46.55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.232,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes25c46.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.729,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No25c45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.254,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No79c44.02$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9768867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes23c43.78$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.542,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked No80c43.73$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9813274.2%98 W · 34 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed No79c42.06$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3737355%205 W · 168 L+20.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x22d7…608dbacked No79c41.57$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.791643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No78c41$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9827669.2%191 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xecc6…55bfbacked No80c40$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328385.5%71 W · 12 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick78cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No26c39.73$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.152,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No28c39.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5239…4134backed Yes50c37.22$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.698466.7%56 W · 28 L+9.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+36%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5068…1ffabacked No79c35$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.85457.4%31 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes32c34.82$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.656,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf055…ccddbacked No77c33.42$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.88950.6%45 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes40c32.31$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.314839.6%19 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cff…468bbacked No60c29.63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7216263%102 W · 60 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No39c28.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.188,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b72…dc2ebacked No56c25.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6128441.5%118 W · 166 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No49c25.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.519262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xd670…1e02backed No79c25.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8722265.8%146 W · 76 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No66c25.01$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.514,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb338…7a24backed No80c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205869%40 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No50c24.84$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.512,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No62c24.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1782268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No80c24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.081,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes47c24$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7627050.4%136 W · 134 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7fd5…6b5cbacked No64c23.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No76c20.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3962770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No74c20.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No77c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.41,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f5d…3384backed No75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1528270.2%198 W · 84 L+0.1wins0.00per pick70cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x599f…3317backed No75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512578.4%98 W · 27 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick75cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x407e…5bf0backed No76c19.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.69361.3%57 W · 36 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-4.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb701…8c1bbacked No80c18.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512070.8%85 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No77c17.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3450373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No77c15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.52,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59ad…0cf2backed No79c14.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.136761.2%41 W · 26 L-7.0wins-0.10per pick72cpaid-16.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x695c…85ddbacked No80c12.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-59.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9fd…1902backed No80c12.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011257.1%64 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.